RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Vietnam (Country update)

Vietnam’s economy remains highly vulnerable and growth is running below trend at 5.9% in 2011. Inflation has fallen somewhat relative to 2011, but remains high and in double-digit territory.

Country Report

Singapore (Country report)

The Singaporean economy is slowing against the backdrop of weaker global growth and heightened global uncertainty. Key risks are a sharp and protracted downturn in large advanced economies and extreme financial stress spreading from the eurozone.

Country Report

Brunei (Country report)

Brunei's hydrocarbon-based economy has embarked on a gradual economic recovery and should benefit from strong Asian demand for its exports, as Japan is shifting its energy mix in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Country Report

India (Country report)

Economic growth in India is expected to fall below the ‘magic’ 7% in fiscal year 2011/12. Five state elections are planned for 2012, which will give more information on the popularity of the government.

Country Report

Malaysia (Country report)

Being one of the most open countries in Asia, Malaysia is sensitive to swings in external demand. Demand for Malaysia’s electronics is expected to be weaker in 2012, but a rise of oil and gas prices would benefit Malaysia as a net energy exporter.

Country Report

South Korea (Country report)

The death of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, has increased political uncertainty within North Korea and led to uncertainty for South Korea. Due to monetary tightening and lower external demand, real GDP growth was 3.3% in 2011.

Country Report

Azerbaijan (Country report)

Azerbaijan is highly dependent on its energy sector and oil exports in particular, which supports the current account and public finances. Economic growth is forecasted at 4% in 2012.

Country Report

Taiwan (Country update)

Although Taiwan witnessed an economic downturn during 2008/2009, the country has managed to recover well, recording 10.9% growth in GDP in 2010.

Country Report

China (Country report)

In China, real GDP growth is slowing gradually to 8.5% in 2012 under the baseline, soft landing scenario. However, a number of downside risks are present. Inflation is easing and in 2012 and 2013, China’s top leadership will be replaced.

Country Report

Country Update Maldives

The economy of Maldives is forecast to grow around 5-6% in 2011/12, helped by recovering tourism arrivals. However, the Maldives struggles with massive deficits on the fiscal and current account balance.

Country Report

India (Country update)

India is showing very robust economic growth, even though it is easing this year compared to last year. The economy is estimated to expand by 7.9% in 2011.

Country Report

Mongolia (Country report)

Mongolia’s economy is recovering on the back of strong international demand for its commodity exports. Growth recovered to 6.1% in 2010 and will remain strong in the coming years. Structurally, Mongolia’s economy is weak.

Country Report

Thailand (Country report)

The unstable political and social situation remains the largest country risk for Thailand. While the situation has stabilized compared to the large-scale violent riots last year, uncertainty remains until the next general elections.

Country Report

The Philippines (Country report)

The Philippine economy is estimated to grow by 5-6% in 2011. The triple disaster in Japan could adversely affect this estimate, as the country has deep trade and investment links with the Philippines.

Country Report

Australia (Country report)

The Australian economy has weathered the global financial and economic crisis relatively well and the deterioration in the public budget balance is easily accommodated by the low sovereign debt level.