RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Re-assessing the US-China trade war

This Special re-assesses the economic impact of the US-China trade war, using more advanced methodologies. Our analysis shows that China disproportionately bears the brunt of a US-China trade war, especially in case of a further escalation.

Economic Report Dutch version

New round of US tariffs raises the pressure on China

On 24 September the United States have installed tariffs on another 200 billion USD imports from China. China responded with tariffs on 60 billion USD of imports from the US. We expect the negative economic effects to be more pronounced for China than for the US.

Special Dutch version

Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again

The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.

Special

De economische impact van handelsoorlogen (Dutch)

Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.

Special

US-China Trade War: Back to the Future

The US had announced USD 50bn of tariffs on Chinese exports and China has responded with a matching USD 50bn of tariffs on US exports. But the US has now raised the ante with a further unspecified USD 200bn of tariffs on Chinese goods - and the threat of a further USD 200bn if China responds again in kind. What is the possible impact and what might happen next?