Economic Report
Trump versus Biden: economische impact van tegenovergestelde beleidsagenda’s (Dutch)
Wat is de economische impact van de beleidsagenda’s van de Amerikaanse presidentskandidaten Trump en Biden? We rekenden het uit.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
9 Publications
Special
Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None
The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.
Video
Make American Productivity Great Again - Video
We discuss the US productivity slowdown and policy options to reverse that trend.
Column
Gaan we de handelsoorlog uit de jaren dertig opnieuw beleven? (Dutch)
Door het beleid van president Trump vrezen velen dat we de handelsoorlog uit de jaren ’30 opnieuw zullen beleven. In deze column gaan we 90 jaar terug in de tijd en belichten de belangrijkste overeenkomsten en verschillen.
Special Dutch version
Trade wars then and now: Smoot-Hawley all over again
The protectionism of the Trump era is similar to the 1930s in terms of motivation, timing, and retaliation. The differences lie in the shift of protectionism through tariffs to non-tariff barriers and the extent of international value chain integration, which makes the impact of protectionist measures less predictable.
Special
De economische impact van handelsoorlogen (Dutch)
Hoewel de effecten van de opleving van protectionisme in de jaren ’30 moeilijk te scheiden zijn van de effecten van de recessie, laat die periode in de economische geschiedenis wel zien dat de gevolgen van een wereldwijde handelsoorlog vele malen groter kunnen zijn dan de beperkte effecten van de huidige schermutselingen.
Special
Trump, Trudeau, Tariffs, Trade, Tijuana - The asymmetric impact of tariffs between the NAFTA partners
The macroeconomic impact of the recently announced tit-for-tat trade-restrictive measures by the NAFTA partners and the EU deviates to a substantial degree between the parties involved, with the smaller ones getting the worst of it. This suggests that trade wars favour bigger economies like the US and EU.
Special
Why Trump’s protectionist trade agenda fails
So far, Trump has failed to implement much of his protectionist trade agenda. We discuss five reasons why we believe Trump will not implement a full-fletched package of protectionist measures. If Trump does resort to protectionism, US GDP could face losses up to -3.1 percentage points in 2018.
