RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

The Great Brexit Gamble

Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

Economic Report

Brexit Update - Extension rebellion

Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: negatief: nieuw normaal? (Dutch)

Het beleid van de centrale bank wordt vaak als oorzaak van de lage rente gezien, maar deze is net zo goed een gevolg van structurele demografische en technologische factoren. De rentes in de eurozone zullen nog lang negatief blijven.

Special

Brexit Outlook: Take control!

Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.