RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Finland

The recovery of the Finnish economy slowed in 2012 and the growth outlook for 2013 is weak. The export dependent economy is struggling with weak external demand, but also with structural issues concerning its main export sectors.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Duitsland (Dutch)

Sentimentindicatoren wijzen op groei in 13K1, echter de harde data zijn vooralsnog minder overtuigend. Daarnaast neemt het producentenvertrouwen af, wat een indicator is voor afzwakking van groei in 13K2. Gelukkig blijven consumenten wel positief.

Economic Update

Economic Update Germany

Sentiment indicators point toward solid growth in 13Q1, but the hard data is less convincing. Moreover, major producer confidence indicators decreased recently, indicating a slowdown of growth. Thankfully, consumers remain positive.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

GDP contracted sharply in 12Q4 due to weak domestic demand. Timely indicators point to a continued weak momentum. The formation of a grand coalition government is viewed positively by investors but does not imply political instability is over.

Economic Update

Economic Update Spain

The first estimate of the GDP figure showed that the recession continued during 13Q1. However, there is also more positive news. The rise of the jobless rate seems to slow down and the drop in inflation might put downward pressure on wage growth.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Italië (Dutch)

Zwakke binnenlandse vraag leidde tot een sterke BBP-krimp in 12K4. Sentimentsindicatoren blijven wijzen op verdere krimp. De beëdiging van een nieuwe regering heeft investeerders positief gestemd maar maakt geen einde aan de politieke instabiliteit.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Spanje (Dutch)

De eerste BBP-schatting laat zien dat de recessie zich in 13K1 heeft voortgezet. Inkomende data brachten echter ook positiever nieuws. De werkloosheidsstijging lijkt langzaam af te zwakken en de inflatiedaling vergroot de kans op loonmatiging.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Economic growth is slowing down in Emerging Markets. In China, GDP growth slowed to 7.7% yoy in 1Q13, while Brazil's industrial production figures for February were disappointing. However, growth is still expected to be slightly higher than in 2012.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia will join the European Union on July 1st, 2013, but its accession is unlikely to bring about short-term relief from its economic problems. Its economy is expected to remain in recession this year, as domestic and external demand stay weak.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

Given the weak economic outlook and high unemployment, it will remain a tough challenge for the government to push through its austerity and reform agenda. Regarding structural reforms that improve long term potential growth, Spain remains on track.

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

Although Luxembourg’s austerity effort is limited, in combination with the slow recovery in the eurozone, it will hamper economic growth during 2013. Supervisory reforms might have an impact on its position in the international financial sector.

Country Report

Country Report France

The recent decennium shows a gradual deterioration of the strength of the private sector. President Hollande has shown he is willing to address this, but we seriously doubt whether his reforms will be sufficient to change France’s economic model.

Country Report

Country Report Greece

In November 2012, the Troika relaxed Greece’s budget and privatization targets and there was a deal to bring down the government debt. Although positive, we still believe a further debt restructuring is necessary to make the debt more sustainable.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

Implementation of Portugal’s bailout program remains broadly on track. Considerable progress has been made, especially regarding the implementation of structural reforms. That said, we stress that political stability must not be taken for granted.

Country Report

Country Report Canada

The budgetary problems of the US government could affect Canada significantly. Furthermore, the continuing strength of the Canadian dollar is weighing on exports. Domestic risks stem from high household indebtedness and a slowing housing market.