RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Thailand (Country update)

The government of Thailand faces some challenging times: recovery of widespread flooding in 2011 and rising political tensions. All of this against the background of a weakening global outlook.

Country Report

Nicaragua (Country Report)

Benefitting from strong foreign direct investments, Nicaragua's economy posted 4.7% economic growth last year. Still, Nicaragua remains heavily dependent on politically-motivated Venezuelan financial support.

Country Report

Suriname (Country Report)

Benefitting from rising gold prices and foreign investment into its mining sector, Suriname's economic growth strengthened to 4.3% last year. However, the passage of an amendment to the Amnesty Law sparked sharp protests from Western countries.

Country Report

Botswana (Country update)

Despite Botswana's efforts to diversify its economic base, the country remains very dependent on diamond exports.

Country Report

United Arab Emirates (Country report)

The UAE has hardly been touched by the political turmoil in the Arab world. Even so, concerns exist on the medium to long-term fallout of the regional turmoil. The economy is expected to grow a sound 3.5% in 2012.

Country Report

Czech Republic (Country update)

The Czech Republic entered its second recession in three years. After the global financial crisis caused the economy to contract by 4.7% in 2009, it has failed to make a full recovery.

Country Report

Australia (Country report)

The Australian economy has quickly shaken off the economic disruption caused by the Queensland floods. The reduction of the budget deficit is slower than expected, but given the very low level of government debt this is no cause for concern.

Country Report

Austria (Country report)

The pace of Austria’s export-led economic recovery is likely to slow down in the coming quarters thanks, in part, to the challenging external environment. The risks to this outlook are considered to be broadly balanced.

Country Report

Belgium (Country report)

The new government has immediately announced a credible austerity package. Although political instability is not off the table for the coming years, the financial position of the private sector and the institutional power are strong.

Country Report

Denmark (Country report)

Barely recovered from the house price correction and the deep 2009 recession, the Danish economy is now hampered by eurozone headwinds. Despite the monetary and fiscal stimulus we expect only meager growth going forward.

Country Report

Norway (Country report)

So far the effects of the European debt crisis on the Norwegian economy have been relatively modest, mostly due to robust growth of private consumption. The housing market should be a key policy area in the coming years.

Country Report

Sweden (Country report)

The strong economic recovery came to a sudden halt in 11Q4 due to the adverse spillover effects of the European debt crisis. But the country has ample space to stimulate domestic demand by both fiscal and monetary policy.

Country Report

Croatia (Country report)

After two years of GDP contraction, Croatia’s economy stagnated in 2011, growing by a meager 0.2%. For 2012, the situation in the eurozone, Croatia’s main export market, and sluggish domestic demand are expected to result in another recession.

Country Report

Kazachstan (Country update)

Kazakhstan’s banking sector remains one of the country’s major weaknesses, while the authorities are increasingly intolerant of oppositional voices.

Country Report

Bahrein (Country report)

The largest country risks for Bahrain lie in the political and social spheres. We expect the social unrest originated in the Arab spring uprising last year to continue as the grievances of the Shi’a community are not likely to be met.