Economic Comment
Brexit update – Brexit 2.0
Boris Johnson is the new British Prime Minister and his team of hardcore Brexiteers points towards a tougher stance on Brexit under his leadership. Brexit is just about to get messier in the coming months.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
11 Publications
Column Dutch version
A bright future for space travel reflects bleaker trends for us on Earth
A world in which great powers clash, the super-rich splurge on hobby projects and there’s an acute shortage of resources doesn’t sound like a friendly place. But it does provide great conditions for space travel.
Special
Modern Monetary Theory (Dutch)
Modern Monetary Theory stelt dat overheden hun uitgaven onbeperkt monetair kunnen financieren. Dit klopt niet. Hoewel het goed is dat MMT meer aandacht besteedt aan begrotingsbeleid en de financiering ervan, schiet MMT als theorie tekort.
Special
Depositogarantie en resolutie: wat is het, hoe werkt het achter de schermen en wanneer wordt het ingezet? (Dutch)
Over depositogarantie en resolutie bestaan veel misverstanden. In deze special wordt uitgelegd hoe het achter de schermen werkt.
Economic Report
The race to predict India’s economic data
We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.
Economic Comment
China: Stimulus prevents further slowdown in growth
The lower GDP growth in the second quarter is in line with our expectations of a gradual economic slowdown. On the back of more government stimulus, June headed towards a slight recovery on several fronts. The question is not if, but when (trade) tensions with the US will flare up again.
Column
Libra kan een mooie aanzet zijn voor een betere SDR (Dutch)
De Libra houdt de gemoederen sterk bezig. Toch zou de Libra in handen van het IMF aan een meer stabiele mondiale financiële architectuur kunnen bijdragen.
Economic Update
Portugal: Back from the brink but not without lingering risks
This study reviews the current state of the Portuguese economy. We describe the main macroeconomic risks Portugal faces and highlight the successes of the centre-left government and the challenges ahead.
Economic Report
Greek electorate ousts Tsipras, conservatives secure outright majority
Conservative party New Democracy (ND) beats ruling populist party Syriza in Greek legislative elections. Greek public debt is still staggeringly high at 181%, but there are some positive signs that could improve debt metrics.
Economic Report
Recession and CLOs
While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.