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Video - India: Economic Outlook 2020

Rabobank economists Raphie Hayat and Hugo Erken discuss their economic outlook for India in 2020. Elements that are elaborated on are the economic growth forecasts, structural issues in the economy, fiscal and monetary policy options and the forecasts for the Indian rupee.

Special

India: Economic Outlook 2020

We forecast economic growth in India of 5.1% for fiscal year 2019/20 and 5.7% for 2020/21. Although we expect the economy to have bottomed out, ongoing structural issues are expected to weigh on India’s medium- and longer-term growth potential.

Economic Report

The race to predict India’s economic data

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Economic Report

Is India slipping back into bad habits?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.

Special

Nowcasting the Indian economy

In this Special we present our new nowcasting methodology for the Indian economy. Our combined model predicts an economic growth for calendar 2018Q4 of 6.3%, which would imply a significant slowdown of economic activity after the already disappointing GDP print of 7.1% in Q3.

Economic Report

India: 2019 Economic Outlook

In 2019, we expect the Indian economy to continue to be the global outperformer in terms of economic growth. There are however substantial downside risks, such as a defeat of Modi’s BJP in the general election and an escalation of the US-China trade war.