RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

Special

Eurozone recessions, a historical perspective

Against a backdrop of increasing talk about a new Eurozone recession, we first take a deep dive into the historical data. We show that since the 1960s there have basically been two types of recessions: common Eurozone recessions and idiosyncratic (country specific) recessions.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en valuta: ongefundeerd optimisme (Dutch)

Het optimisme in de financiële markten is in onze ogen niet houdbaar en wij zien weer lagere rentes in de loop van 2020. Terwijl het Britse pond het meeste positieve nieuws wel heeft verwerkt, blijft de dollar voorlopig sterk. Fed renteverlagingen zullen uiteindelijk wel op de dollar gaan wegen.

Special

Very dangerous European cars part II

Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.

Economic Report

Eurozone: Revisiting growth

The disappointing recovery of the German car sector, the yellow vests in France and slowing external demand lead to a downward revision of our growth figures for 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.