RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Very dangerous European cars part II

Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.

Economic Comment

Italy’s political crisis continues

The short-term economic impact of the current political turmoil is limited. Italy will likely keep the Euro, but a government with Five Star and the League could severely damage debt sustainability and longer term growth prospects.

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Special

Is a US trade war imminent?

Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.