RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Quarterly Report

Japan: monetair beleid kan het niet alleen (Dutch)

Verrassende renteverlaging pakt averechts uit op valutamarkt; yen wordt duurder tegenover de Amerikaanse dollar. Onderliggend ontbreekt van Abenomics de pijl van broodnodige structurele economische hervormingen; monetair beleid kan het niet alleen.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: many risks but no new Asian crisis in the making

A balance of payments crisis is unlikely in today’s Asia. Most countries have improved their current accounts and FX reserves. The rising debt load may however pose problems, although it nowadays is mainly local currency denominated.

Economic Report

Asia-Pacific: can Asia’s convergence story continue?

Demographics will provide headwinds in the developed countries of APAC and China, and tailwinds in South Asia. While total factor productivity growth has fallen, the innovation outlook for the APAC region is still relatively favourable.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Financial Markets

While there will be a devaluation of the Chinese renminbi, the dollar will also become stronger more generally in 2016, due in part to the Fed’s interest rate increases. The ECB is more likely to do the opposite, which will weaken the euro/dollar currency pair further still. Slightly higher capital market rates can be expected though.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2016: Global Economy

Global growth holds up in 2016, but does not accelerate. With the US poised to hike interest rates, the rest of the world waits anxiously. Normalization of monetary policy poses economic risks, but so does keeping it too loose for too long.

Economic Quarterly Report

Wereldeconomie vertraagt, Nederlandse economie versnelt (Dutch)

Terwijl de groei van de wereldeconomie dit jaar vertraagt, zal de economische groei in ons land juist iets versnellen. Het Nederlandse BBP groeit dit jaar naar verwachting met 2¼% en deze groei zal in 2016 oplopen naar 2¾%. Onze export en de binnenlandse bestedingen zorgen ervoor dat de groei een brede basis heeft.