RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Romania

Romania has embarked on a gradual export-driven economic recovery, but domestic demand has yet to pick up. Amid rising domestic political tensions, policymaking could come to a standstill until presidential elections are held in November.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Country Report

Country Report Algeria

Algeria’s hydrocarbon-based economy is facing rising competition from the recent shale gas boom in the US, but thanks to ample fiscal reserves, the impact on the country has been limited so far. Its social climate will likely remain stable, even if President Bouteflika should be re-elected next year.

Country Report

Country Report Lithuania

Following successful internal devaluation and economic rebalancing, Lithuania currently ranks among the EU’s fastest-growing members. Its new government remains committed to fiscal consolidation in order to qualify for euro accession by 2015.

Country Report

Country Report Poland

Benefitting from firming external demand, Poland’s economy gradually turns the corner and its external position improves. Yet, weaker growth left its mark on public finances, forcing the government to take steps to avoid mandatory spending cuts.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Thailand’s economy grew robustly last year, but concerns about asset bubbles are emerging. Thanks to prime minister Shinawatra’s cautious policies regarding the return of her exiled brother Thaksin, social tensions calmed down, but remain present.

Country Report

Country Report Macedonia

Macedonia’s economic and political situation looks challenging, as the country’s economy contracted last year and the passage of this year’s budget resulted in a major political crisis. Meanwhile, EU membership remains a distant prospect.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

Reflecting close business cycle synchronicity with the euro area and fiscal consolidation at home, the Czech economy contracted by 1.2% last year. Yet, thanks to ongoing fiscal prudence, the deterioration of public finances could be contained.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has been singled out as a potential candidate for an EU/IMF bailout. Recent bond emissions should cover this year’s financing needs, but larger-than-expected bank recapitalization costs could still make external assistance necessary.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s economic and fiscal situation remains worrisome, as the country’s economy fell back into recession last year and a pre-election spending binge led to a marked deterioration of its public finances.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia will join the European Union on July 1st, 2013, but its accession is unlikely to bring about short-term relief from its economic problems. Its economy is expected to remain in recession this year, as domestic and external demand stay weak.

Country Report

Country Report Hungary

Hungary’s economy fell back into recession last year and growth is expected to remain negative in 2013. Its government managed to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, but very high foreign currency-denominated debt remains a major source of risk.

Country Report

Country Report Dominican Republic

Economic growth cooled markedly in the Dominican Republic, while strong pre-election spending led to a deterioration of public finances. The balance-of-payments position remains weak and could deteriorate further if PetroCaribe support were to end.

Country Report

Country Report Bermuda

Following its fourth year in recession, Bermuda’s economy is expected to stagnate this year. The local government has to embark on fiscal consolidation soon, but these efforts should not affect the island’s important (re)insurance sector.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In some emerging markets, economic growth has started to pick up in the fourth quarter of last year, but not in all. This year should be a better year than 2012, but growth will remain relatively weak and below the long-term trend.