RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

The defence spending gap in the EU

The EU is temporarily exempted from the steel and aluminium tariffs in the US. While seeking permanent exemption, it might be difficult for the EU to increase defence spending to the satisfaction of the US, due to the possibly massive costs involved.

Special

Is a US trade war imminent?

Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.

Economic Comment

Eurozone economy steams ahead into 2018

The Eurozone economy finished 2017 at a high note, with annual growth coming in at 2.5%, the highest figure since 2011. The outlook for 2018 looks good as well, likely prompting us to upwardly revise our forecasts soon.

Economic Report

Catalan separatists tone down defiant stance

The risk of a new clash between Catalonia and Madrid in the coming weeks has dropped. Tensions will remain high in the coming years, but Catalonia will stay part of Spain. Notably, the political crisis has had limited impact on Spain’s economy.

Economic Report

Separatists will likely win Catalan elections

The separatists will likely win today’s elections in Catalonia, but they might lose their absolute majority. While a fresh push towards unilateral independence is unlikely, it could take many years before tensions actually recede.