RaboResearch - Economic Research

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Video - India: Economic Outlook 2020

Rabobank economists Raphie Hayat and Hugo Erken discuss their economic outlook for India in 2020. Elements that are elaborated on are the economic growth forecasts, structural issues in the economy, fiscal and monetary policy options and the forecasts for the Indian rupee.

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India: Economic Outlook 2020

We forecast economic growth in India of 5.1% for fiscal year 2019/20 and 5.7% for 2020/21. Although we expect the economy to have bottomed out, ongoing structural issues are expected to weigh on India’s medium- and longer-term growth potential.

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Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.

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Eurozone recessions, a historical perspective

Against a backdrop of increasing talk about a new Eurozone recession, we first take a deep dive into the historical data. We show that since the 1960s there have basically been two types of recessions: common Eurozone recessions and idiosyncratic (country specific) recessions.

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The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?

Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.

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The Great Brexit Gamble

Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

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Very dangerous European cars part II

Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.

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Trump: Impeachment without conviction

The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President.