RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Spanish elections: take four!

Sunday’s elections in Spain are unlikely to break the deadlock in parliament. The economy will continue to grow relatively fast in the short term, but growth is slowing while unemployment is still high and public finances weak.

Economic Report

Brexit Update - Extension rebellion

Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.

Economic Report

The race to predict India’s economic data

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Economic Report

Recession and CLOs

While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.

Economic Report

Brexit update - Johnson in the lead

Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.