RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Economische turbulentie in Turkije: Vraag en antwoord (Dutch)

De waarde van de Turkse lira kende de afgelopen twee weken een sterke terugval, nadat politieke spanningen tussen Turkije en de Verenigde Staten opliepen en investeerders bovendien hun vertrouwen verloren in het Turkse economische en monetaire beleid.

Economic Comment

Stilte voor een storm? (Dutch)

Groei houdt stand begin 2016 maar blijft omgeven door neerwaartse risico’s. Stijgende grondstofprijzen helpen opkomende economieën. De economische situatie blijft fundamenteel broos en afhankelijk van (wijzigingen in) monetair beleid.

Economic Comment

Turkey: surprise landslide victory ensures AKP single-party rule

The AKP’s surprise victory at Turkey’s snap elections restores political stability, but the new cabinet needs to embark on structural reforms and boost central bank independency to uphold investor confidence amid elevated balance-of-payments risks.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Russia’s economic growth has continued to slow this year and we expect 2.2% growth in 2013. The central bank is likely to loosen monetary policy amid falling inflation. The government’s stimulus measures are justifiable, but no effect is expected in the very short term.

Economic Update

Emerging markets – US tapering has a big impact

US tapering is leading to portfolio outflows in emerging markets, especially in countries that are running both a current account and budget balance deficit.

Economic Update

Russia: Slowdown continues, stimulus expected

The most recent data shows that economic growth in Russia continues to slow down. There have been talks of a fiscal stimulus package, which is feasible given Russia’s healthy public finances. However, it is not without risks in the long term.

Economic Update

Economic Update Russia

Preliminary data shows that the Russian economy grew by 3.4% y-o-y in 2012. However, this masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year. We expect growth to remain subdued at 3% in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

Several emerging markets continue to experience a slowdown in growth. Growth in 12Q2 went down in both Russia and Turkey, while growth in China is likely to slow down further in Q3 as well. Meanwhile, industrial production in Mexico remained strong.

Economic Comment

Hungary: Jumping off a cliff? (Macro Comment)

Hungary’s government is becoming increasingly autocratic, thereby threatening to undo years of democracy-building, while simultaneously risking a sovereign default.