RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The risk of a hard landing in China

This article is part of a series of Special Reports that discuss the downside risks to the global economic outlook. In this study we take a closer look at the risk of a hard landing in China.

Economic Report

Risk of eurozone break-up

This article is part of a series of Special Reports that discuss the downside risks to the global economic outlook. In this piece, we take a closer look at the risk of eurozone facing a wave of sovereign defaults or even completely breaking up.

Economic Report

The Great Uncertainty

This article is the introduction of a series of Special Reports that discuss the downside risks to the global economic outlook, as presented in Rabobank Outlook 2012.

Economic Report

Italië: problemen lopen gruwelijk uit de hand (Dutch)

Italië is een schoolvoorbeeld van een land waar liquiditeits- en solvabiliteitszorgen ernstig met elkaar vermengd zijn geraakt. Allesbepalend is dat Italië de financiële markten ervan overtuigt dat het wil werken om zijn solvabiliteit te waarborgen.

Economic Report

The Rabo Sovereign Vulnerability Index

After the dismal failures of the financial markets to correctly price sovereign risk before the crisis, one must be aware that they can still over-or underprice sovereign risk in some countries.

Economic Report

UK: to QE or not to QE?

The pace of economic recovery is slowing before the fiscal squeeze has kicked in. But the BoE is hesitant to launch QE2 given the higherthan expected inflation (expectations). There are definitely short-term upside risks to inflation, mostly due to the VAT hike in January 2011.

Economic Report

Public debt: nothing to fear but fear itself

Investors are worried that rising public debt to GDP ratios in the advanced economies will eventually lead to a wave of sovereign defaults. To calm market nerves, therefore, governments have announced austerity measures to lower debt ratios to more ‘sustainable levels’.

Economic Report

Deflation, here we come?

Deflationary risks are rising in the advanced economies. This has made some worry that a Japan-style deflationary episode is awaiting us. In our view, these particular concerns are exaggerated.

Economic Report

Sterke Europese cooperatieve banken (Dutch)

De financiële perikelen voor landen en banken zijn nog niet voorbij. Wel is nu duidelijk dat Europese coöperatieve banken de initiële kredietcrisis van 2007-2008 relatief goed hebben doorstaan.

Economic Report

Continuing housing surplus in Ireland

Too many residential dwellings were built in Ireland for many years from the start of this century. The large number of assumptions and estimates precludes a precise estimation of the housing surplus in our analysis.

Economic Report

Blijvend overschot aan Ierse huizen (Dutch)

Sinds het begin van deze eeuw zijn in Ierland te veel woningen gebouwd. Een precieze inschatting van het overschot aan woningen is niet mogelijk. Wel denken wij dat er tot en met 2009 een fors overschot van meer dan 100.000 woningen opgebouwd is.

Economic Report

UK Budget: good politics, bad economics?

The UK government claimed that the fiscal consolidation plan will be tough and they certainly did not disappoint. The government plans to reduce its structural budget deficit by 8% of GDP over the next five years.

Economic Report

Is Britain the next Greece?

In our view, there are ten reasons why the UK will not go down the ‘Greek path’ anytime soon. But the new government must plug in its fiscal black hole if it wishes to retain its debt sustainability and its cherished AAA rating.

Economic Report

Liquidity requirements from Basel make life tougher for banks

In December 2009, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision made proposals to harmonise the oversight of banks’ liquidity. Are these new requirements even more stringent for the banking sector than the proposals for tighter capital requirements?