In 11Q3, export growth managed to keep the Spanish economy out of recession. But the available economic data for 11Q4 point to GDP contraction in that quarter. For the first quarter of this year we also expect GDP to fall.
Hungary’s government is becoming increasingly autocratic, thereby threatening to undo years of democracy-building, while simultaneously risking a sovereign default.
The December manufacturing PMIs have surprised on the upside. We should take comfort that the deterioration in PMIs is nowhere close to what we witnessed at the height of the crisis in 2008-09.