RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Norway

The economic outlook is stable, public and external balance sheets are exceptionally healthy, insti-tutions strong and policymaking is adequate and effective. But, Norway has to deal with very high household debt alongside overvalued houses and is dependent on oil and gas (related) production.

Country Report

Country Report Switzerland

Thanks to private consumption, the Swiss economy is doing reasonably well. The persistently low interest rates causes house prices to rise. Populist policies, like the introduction of a cap on immigration will deteriorate the medium-term outlook.

Country Report

Country Report United Kingdom

The UK economy finally started to recover, although it still has a long way to go. Productivity is lagging and debt is elevated. The expansionary monetary policy combined with housing subsidies increases the risk of regional housing bubbles.

Country Report

Country Report Germany

The German economy performs well due to their competitive export sector and improving domestic demand. The housing market in the big cities is buoyant, but countrywide, there are no signs of overheating.

Country Report

Country Report Cyprus

Cyprus is in the midst of a severe economic depression. With aid from the EU and IMF, the country is slowly picking itself up, but there is a long road ahead. Negotiations on reunification of the island have recommenced and could (in the long term) lead to an improvement in the economic environment.

Country Report

Country Report Malta

Stronger economic growth and improved fiscal balances place Malta in a better position than a year ago, but challenges, such as the structurally high public debt, remain.

Country Report

Country Report Sweden

The Swedish central bank has recently voiced its concerns about the high level of household debt. Meanwhile, the centre-right coalition is likely to lose the September 2014 parliamentary elections.

Column

Het voelt (weer) bubbelig… (Dutch)

De beurskoersen staan op recordhoogte, zeker in de VS. De huizenprijzen in een aantal landen zijn flink aan het stijgen. Mooi, zou de conclusie kunnen zijn. Want dit betekent vermogenswinsten en blijkbaar dat de risico’s in Zuid-Europese landen zijn afgenomen. Het is de vraag of dat zo is.

Country Report

Country Report Finland

Finland has to deal with a weak economic outlook, waning export sectors, a rapidly ageing population and private sector debt. That said, its public finances and banking system are solid, institutions are strong and the business sector is competitive.

Country Report

Country Report Estonia

Estonia’s economic growth will moderate this year, but due to the turmoil in Ukraine the risks are tilted to the downside. Meanwhile, Estonia’s fiscal position remains strong.