Economic Comment
In the third quarter of 2018, the Eurozone economy grew by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter. October PMI indicators showed a sharper drop than expected, indicating that growth in Q4 will probably remain low.
Economic Comment
De financiële markten maken zich steeds meer zorgen over de vlakke Amerikaanse yield curve. Als de Fed het huidige tempo van renteverhogingen aanhoudt, inverteert de yield curve. In het verleden is dit vaak een voorteken geweest van een recessie.
Economic Comment
The UK brought the Brexit talks with the EU to a stand-still on 14 October. EU’s original deadline for a signed deal has been missed. We now estimate the chances of a ‘hard Brexit’ as almost as high as those of a deal.
Economic Comment
Prime Minister May of the United Kingdom survived the annual conference of the Conservative Party and that strengthens her position. The next milestone is the October EU summit and negotiations are intensifying ahead of it.
Economic Comment
The Brexit summit of EU leaders in Salzburg on 19-20 September ended up in a drama. That is not justified but it suggests the EU and the UK lack a good understanding of each other and that raises the odds of a ‘Hard Brexit’ by accident.
