RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Belgium: Good things come to those who wait

The economic recovery carries on as growth of domestic demand increases. Fiscal policy will be less distortive next year and inflation remains low. However, high unemployment and also wage moderation still limit private consumption growth.

Economic Update

Italy: Arrivederci recessione?!

GDP growth stagnated in 13Q3. One cannot talk of a start of economic recovery yet, though. The contribution of domestic demand was negative and there are still significant headwinds. On a positive note, policy uncertainty might fall going forward.

Economic Update

Spain: Basta recesión!

Spanish GDP rose in 13Q3, after nine quarterly contractions in a row. Although positive, we do not expect a quick recovery on the labour market. Based on the Budget 2014, the fiscal effort will be slightly less than in preceding years.

Economic Update

Germany: Steady as she goes

Once again, the German economy posted a positive growth figure in the third quarter. The increase has been entirely domestic-driven. We expect domestic demand to remain strong given the solid labour market and the positive investment outlook.

Economic Update

France: Nombres rouges

The French economy slightly contracted in 13Q3, but this was largely due to a bounce back from the strong 13Q2 figure. We expect the recovery to continue, albeit very gradually. Therefore, we do not envisage a robust improvement in the labour market.

Economic Update

Italy: The road to Rome is still very long

The Italian economy stayed in recession in 13Q2. Sentiment is improving, but domestic demand will be too weak to support growth in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, political turmoil is making markets nervous, which further hampers the recovery.

Economic Update

France: A jobless recovery

A strong GDP figure in 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels show that economic conditions are improving. That said, the GDP figure was boosted by temporary factors while the rigid labour market does not show any signs of recovery yet.

Economic Update

Spain: Adios recesión?

A better than expected GDP figure for 13Q2 and rising sentiment levels suggest that economic conditions are improving. That said, a quick housing market and labour market recovery is not on the cards yet.

Economic Update

Germany: Still going strong

Second quarter economic growth in Germany was broad-based. Given the current readings of both the producer and consumer confidence, the economy is expected to continue growing in the coming quarters.

Economic Update

United Kingdom: consumers benefiting from rising asset prices

The recent batch of positive data suggests that the risks to our growth forecast are tilted to the upside. The strengthening job market, receding uncertainty, rising asset prices and looser credit conditions are pushing up sentiment.

Economic Update

France: improving conditions

France might be able to prevent another GDP contraction in 13Q2. This expectation is based on better-than-expected household consumption and industrial production figures. Overall, we take note of an unexpected improvement of economic conditions.

Economic Update

Belgium: a bumpy road to recovery

In 13Q2, GDP growth turned positive after stagnation in 13Q1. Going forward, the recovery is expected to continue, but at a fairly slow pace and subject to downside risks. Robust labour market recovery is not expected before the end of the year.

Economic Update Dutch version

Spain: bright spots are emerging gradually

The bright spots for the economy are beginning to emerge. Sentiment indicators increased considerably in May and June. Further, the two year relaxation of Spain’s budget targets allows the country to avoid a tougher austerity effort going forward.