RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Latin America: The only way is up

Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.

Special Dutch version

Trump’s impact on the economy

As of January 20, Donald J. Trump is President of the United States. In this Special we sketch the changes in economic policy that we should expect in the coming years, in particular in the areas of fiscal stimulus, trade policy, and energy policy. We also look at effects on US public debt sustainability, and market implications.

Economic Report

Latin America: cycling on or muddling through?

Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.

Economic Report

Latin America: turning the populist page

The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.

Country Report

Brazil: rays of light at the end of the tunnel

Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.

Country Report

Argentina: normalizing the economy, a tough balancing act

The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.

Special Dutch version

The GCC: going cold turkey on oil?

The oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries suffer from the oil price slump while diversification will prove difficult. In the short-run, the necessary budgetary consolidation Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will weigh on political risk.

Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version

Global economic outlook: clouds in the rear- view mirror, storm on the horizon?

Economic growth is expected to slow down only slightly this year as global economic conditions are not as dramatic as recent financial markets turbulence suggests. There is no simple and accessible alternative to further monetary easing, whose effectiveness is diminishing while the negative side effects are compounding.

Country Report

Brazil: caught up in a political storm

Brazil is struggling with policy paralysis and a deep recession as a colossal corruption case has brought politics to a gridlock. Little improvement is expected in 2016.

Economic Report

The perils of diverging monetary policy

Monetary policies in the eurozone and US are on the verge of parting ways. For the world economy as a whole, there is a risk that this monetary divergence will fuel external imbalances among the largest economies.

Country Report

Tanzania: Magufuli’s victory good for the business environment

Tanzania’s economy is performing well, despite challenges arising from a weak currency. The recent presidential victory of Magufuli, a candidate with strong anti-corruption credentials bodes well for the business environment.