RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Brazil: rays of light at the end of the tunnel

Political risks have decreased and the economic downturn seems to be bottoming out, but the out-look of the currently dire fiscal position is still uncertain.

Country Report

Argentina: normalizing the economy, a tough balancing act

The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.

Country Report

South Korea: still going strong

Government stimulus helps South Korea’s economy hold ground against domestic and external headwinds. Tensions with North Korea picked up, but are unlikely to have severe consequences.

Country Report

Argentina: economic transition full speed ahead

Following opposition victory in the November 2015 Argentinian elections, Argentina changes course on economic policy. The shift is good for the business environment, but not without implementation risks.

Country Report

Brazil: caught up in a political storm

Brazil is struggling with policy paralysis and a deep recession as a colossal corruption case has brought politics to a gridlock. Little improvement is expected in 2016.

Country Report

Tanzania: Magufuli’s victory good for the business environment

Tanzania’s economy is performing well, despite challenges arising from a weak currency. The recent presidential victory of Magufuli, a candidate with strong anti-corruption credentials bodes well for the business environment.

Country Report

Argentina: winds of change

Argentina is heading for change as the October 2015 elections are approaching. However, the economic tide will take longer to change as macroeconomic imbalances are large and increasing.

Country Report

Peru: losing steam

Falling commodity prices take their toll on the Peruvian economy and currency. Political vacuum leaves room for more radical outsiders in the 2016 elections.

Country Report

Brazil: headwinds intensify

Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Growth in Bulgaria remains weak and fiscal balances have been deteriorating, though from a low base. The banking sector has weathered last year’s crisis well, but further measures are necessary to improve its resilience in the future

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

Economic growth in Luxembourg remains strong, but international regulatory changes could chal-lenge the country’s economic model and strong fiscal position in the future.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

Brazil’s economy is in the doldrums and the recent return to sounder macroeconomic policies, though positive in the long term, will weigh heavily on economic activity in 2015.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

The ruling Frente Amplio won a third term in office and will now have to strike a balance between high spending needs and sound macroeconomic policies while the economy is slowing down.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

Argentina’s huge macroeconomic imbalances worsened in 2014 and little improvement is expected in 2015, at least not until a new cabinet takes office in December 2015 after the elections.

Country Report

Country Report Chile

A new government took office in March 2014 and has been pushing through a bold reform agenda. In the meantime, the economy took a downturn, but economic activity is likely to improve in 2015.