RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

In oil, rebalancing is the key word

According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.

Country Report

Argentina: winds of change

Argentina is heading for change as the October 2015 elections are approaching. However, the economic tide will take longer to change as macroeconomic imbalances are large and increasing.

Country Report

Peru: losing steam

Falling commodity prices take their toll on the Peruvian economy and currency. Political vacuum leaves room for more radical outsiders in the 2016 elections.

Economic Comment

Brazil is back to junk

Brazil lost its investment grade with S&P on 9 September. The downgrade underlines Brazil’s enormous fiscal challenges. Political headwinds could further darken the fiscal and economic outlook.

Country Report

Brazil: headwinds intensify

Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Growth in Bulgaria remains weak and fiscal balances have been deteriorating, though from a low base. The banking sector has weathered last year’s crisis well, but further measures are necessary to improve its resilience in the future

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

Economic growth in Luxembourg remains strong, but international regulatory changes could chal-lenge the country’s economic model and strong fiscal position in the future.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

Brazil’s economy is in the doldrums and the recent return to sounder macroeconomic policies, though positive in the long term, will weigh heavily on economic activity in 2015.

Country Report

Country Report Uruguay

The ruling Frente Amplio won a third term in office and will now have to strike a balance between high spending needs and sound macroeconomic policies while the economy is slowing down.