RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

Going down: Revising our economic forecasts for India

We have revised our economic forecasts for the Indian economy downward to -10.6% for fiscal 2020/21 and expect the economy to grow by 8.9% in fiscal 2021/22. The main reason for the revision is that monthly economic data show that the pace of recovery is much slower than anticipated.

Economic Report

India’s worrying inflation dynamics

Inflation in India has been stubbornly high. Although we expect inflation to come down, we believe the downward trajectory will be short-lived. Against this backdrop, the Reserve Bank of India is probably reluctant to cut its policy rates.

Economic Report

Should India Print Money To Fight Covid-19?

Against the backdrop of a crippled economy and rising debt metrics, policymakers around the globe are adopting or considering unconventional monetary policy to solve the current state of emergency. For some countries, such as India, this would be a bad idea. We show that a major MMT fiscal package could push inflation up to 12% and the currency down by 25%.

Economic Report

United States: Civil unrest

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States reflects the failure of institutions. Protests in the streets reveal a polarized society and a lack of trust in institutions that predates the outbreak of the virus. No matter who wins the elections, the civil unrest is not likely to pass.

Economic Report

India: Twin crises bode ill for the economic outlook

Besides the border dispute with China, India continues to struggle to keep a lid on COVID-19. The twin crises has an adverse impact on India’s attractiveness as an investment destination, which might explain why the Indian rupee (INR) has barely been able to benefit from the global financial markets rally.

Economic Report

Which jobs are vulnerable in the six-foot economy?

The United States might be stuck with a so-called ‘six-foot economy’ for a considerable period of time in order to prevent a re-emergence of the COVID-19 virus. Our main finding is that 23% of all US jobs might face problems to adapt to such an economy. Occupations in healthcare (60% vulnerable jobs), air transport (59%) and the hospitality sector (49%) are especially vulnerable.