RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In some emerging markets, economic growth has started to pick up in the fourth quarter of last year, but not in all. This year should be a better year than 2012, but growth will remain relatively weak and below the long-term trend.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

The French economy seems to have contracted mildly in 12Q4. Going forward, sentiment indicators in January point to a deterioration of economic activity, in contrast to the slight improvement seen in several other eurozone countries.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

GDP contracted in 12Q4. The labour market continues to surprise on the upside. Inflation is expected to rise further, which will be an extra headwind for households this year. There are signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme is gaining traction.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld België (Dutch)

Het BBP kromp in 12K4 licht. Vermoedelijk was de groei over de gehele linie zwak en ook voor 2013 verwachten wij geen sterke toename in het BBP. Positief nieuws is de dalende inflatie en de in het verschiet liggende loonkostenbeperking.

Country Report

Country Report Chile

Chile’s economy has continued to perform well in 2012. As elections will take place in October, 2013 will be an important political year. One of the main tasks of both the current and a new government is preventing an energy crisis.

Country Report

Country Report Kazachstan

President Nazerbayev rules in an authoritarian manner and has no significant opposition. The banking sector remains weak as it is still recovering from a default of the country’s third largest bank. For 2013, the economy is estimated to grow by 7%.

Country Report

Country Report Ukraine

The political situation in the Ukraine is troubling, since President Yanukovych is ruling Ukraine in an authoritarian manner. The economy is in bad shape as the country is running twin deficits and in desperate need of additional external financing.

Country Report

Paraguay (Update country report)

Right when Paraguay seemed to be have recovered from an earlier outbreak of foot and mouth disease, a new outbreak was reported in early January. Meanwhile, Paraguay has also been hit by a drought.

Country Report

Country Report Turkey

After nearly overheating in 2011, Turkey’s economic growth came to a halt in 2012, as the government and Central Bank successfully cooled domestic demand and reined in the massive influx of portfolio investments.

Country Report

Country Report Brazil

With GDP growing by only 1%, 2012 has been a disappointing year for Brazil. Low unemployment and investment will constrain economic growth in the coming years. However, the government seems somewhat more willing to address Brazil’s structural issues.

Economic Report Dutch version

Spanish labour market: no recovery in sight

Faced with sky-high unemployment, Spanish policymakers have initiated radical labour market reforms. While this will hopefully lead to a turnaround in the Spanish labour market in the long run, the outlook for the next several years remains bleak.

Country Report

Country Report Jordan

The precarious social situation is the largest country risk in Jordan, as protests continue in the wake of the Arab Spring. The country runs substantial twin deficits, which is worrisome. The economy is forecast to grow by 3% in 2013.


Zuid-Europees groeidividend (Dutch)

De forse bezuinigings- en hervormingsinspanning in de perifere lidstaten zorgt voor een deels structurele herbalancering in de eurozone. Op de langere termijn kunnen de hervormingen in deze lidstaten bovendien een aanzienlijk groeidividend genereren.

Economic Comment Dutch version

Dutch economy back in recession

The Dutch economy entered its third recession in four years in the second half of 2012. Recent sentiment indicators point to some stabilization at the start of the year, but the economic outlook remains weak and uncertain.