RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Thailand’s economy grew robustly last year, but concerns about asset bubbles are emerging. Thanks to prime minister Shinawatra’s cautious policies regarding the return of her exiled brother Thaksin, social tensions calmed down, but remain present.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

Indonesia has outperformed most countries in the World throughout the crisis on the back of domestic demand. In order to maintain that growth level, and not be faced with increasing inflation, the country will need to seek structural improvements.

Country Report

Country Report Macedonia

Macedonia’s economic and political situation looks challenging, as the country’s economy contracted last year and the passage of this year’s budget resulted in a major political crisis. Meanwhile, EU membership remains a distant prospect.

Country Report

Country Report Israel

Economic growth in Israel is expected to slow in 2013 but pick up in 2014 as gas output increases. The new government has an opportunity to push through reforms. Tensions with Syria and Iran will continue in the forecast period.

Country Report

Country Report Norway

While rising house prices and low interest rates have boosted growth, they have also led to increasing housing market risks amid high household indebtedness. That said, the strong fiscal position mitigates the risks to financial stability.

Country Report

Country Report Denmark

Growth is hampered by weak external demand and private sector deleveraging. Although the banking sector has come a long way in addressing its weaknesses, challenges remain. Danish public finances are healthy.

Country Report

Country Report Australia

The economy performs well thanks to its strong trade links with China, but with growth being narrowly driven by the mining business. The currency is very strong, which erodes price competitiveness of non-commodity exports.

Country Report

Country Report United Kingdom

UK’s economy has been stagnating since 2010. What the authorities fail to realise is that growth shortfalls are equally credit-negative. The poor economic performance and the resulting downside risks to banks’ asset quality also remain a concern.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Economic growth in Russia is falling to a lower longer-term trend growth of 3-4%. While domestic political stability has been restored, underlying tensions remain. Tensions with the EU have recently risen but are unlikely to escalate.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has been singled out as a potential candidate for an EU/IMF bailout. Recent bond emissions should cover this year’s financing needs, but larger-than-expected bank recapitalization costs could still make external assistance necessary.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

In 2012, Italy’s GDP contracted amid harsh fiscal austerity measures and ongoing European debt crisis. The weak growth outlook in both the short and the long-term requires firm action by the government.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Economic growth in Taiwan has been slowing as a result of weak external demand. As inflation is running near the central bank’s inflation target, interest rates have been kept steady. GDP growth is expected to recover somewhat in the coming years.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s economic and fiscal situation remains worrisome, as the country’s economy fell back into recession last year and a pre-election spending binge led to a marked deterioration of its public finances.