Economic Report
The great Brexit gamble paid off
The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.
RaboResearch - Economic Research
348 Publications
Economic Report
Spanish elections: take four!
Sunday’s elections in Spain are unlikely to break the deadlock in parliament. The economy will continue to grow relatively fast in the short term, but growth is slowing while unemployment is still high and public finances weak.
Economic Report
India could miss the shift underway in global trade, unless...
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.
Economic Report
Brexit Update - Extension rebellion
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
Economic Report
De regio als spin in het web van innovatie en groei (Dutch)
Onze economie is veranderd. Kennis, de regio en duurzaamheid zijn veel centraler komen te staan bij het concurrentievermogen van bedrijven. Nationaal, macro-economisch innovatiebeleid volstaat daarom niet meer. Otto Raspe stelt dat nieuw innovatiebeleid veel nadrukkelijker gebiedsgericht moet zijn.
Economic Report
Storm in a tea cup or first step towards a transatlantic trade war?
In this report we assess the potential impact of US tariffs on European Union export goods worth USD 7.5bn. The use of a standard GTAP trade model enables us to analyse the economic impact across sectors and countries.
Economic Report
Portugal: Continuing down the road of fiscal consolidation
Portuguese elections (October 6) are likely to be won by Prime Minister Costa’s Socialists. Costa’s ability to maintain fiscal prudence as a policy cornerstone will depend on the economy maintaining its momentum.
Economic Report
India’s economic slump: Is there worse in store or light at the end of the tunnel?
India’s economic growth slowed to the lowest level in six years. At this point it is uncertain whether the economic slump has bottomed out. We have pencilled in a rebound in growth to 6% for fiscal q2, but there are substantial downward risks to this outlook.
Economic Report
Japan: Decent economic growth in first half of 2019, central bank weighs options
Japan’s economic growth did not disappoint in the first two quarters of 2019. Domestic focus is on the BoJ meeting in September and the VAT hike in October. The external environment remains challenging because of slowing global activity and rising tensions with South Korea.
Economic Report
Italy: Durable solution to the political instability looks beyond reach
New left-wing government looks set to take office, but talks can still break down. Whichever government comes in, none of them looks capable of breaking with Italy’s unstable political past, let alone effectively deal with its long-standing problems.
Economic Report Dutch version
Dutch Investment Fund: Money for nothin' and your growth for free
The Dutch government is reportedly considering borrowing for an investment fund to support economic growth. This is a shift from the debt-averse political consensus in the Netherlands. It could increase pressure on Germany to do something similar.
Economic Report
Hoe gevoelig is de Nederlandse economie voor ontwikkelingen in Hongkong? (Dutch)
De directe handels- en investeringsrelatie van Nederland met Hongkong lijkt op het eerste gezicht beperkt. Maar er zijn ook diverse indirecte effecten die we in ogenschouw moeten nemen, zoals de rol die verdere escalatie kan spelen bij het brede conflict tussen de Verenigde Staten en China.
Economic Report
Hong Kong’s airport’s closure and its meaning
The recent HKIA occupation has already hit Hong Kong’s economy and its global reputation; any repeat would be exponentially more damaging. Yet if such action were to trigger a crackdown from China the potential risks would be far larger than just to Hong Kong’s GDP or its reputation.
Economic Report
Welke Aziatische landen kunnen profiteren van een verplaatsing van productie uit China? (Dutch)
De handelsoorlog zal waarschijnlijk zorgen voor een versnelde verplaatsing van productie uit China. Onze nieuwe ‘Where Will They Go’ index laat zien Thailand, Maleisië, Vietnam, Taiwan en India waarschijnlijk zullen profiteren van deze verplaatsing.