RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Game over?

Theresa May has said she will resign on 7 June, after her last attempt to save the EU-UK deal failed to garner sufficient support last week. A tougher stance on Brexit and more political turmoil are likely to follow.

Special

Modi's BJP sweeps general elections, but faces arduous task

BJP’s unexpected sweep of India’s general elections means that Prime Minister Modi has a clear mandate to follow through on its reform agenda. However, we believe his government will struggle to push through more difficult reforms, such as labour market and land reforms, which are much needed to lift the country’s growth above 7%.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Going nowhere fast

The UK held local elections in England and Northern Ireland on May, 2nd. The Conservatives and Labour took a drubbing in the polls. Meanwhile, Tory- Labour talks on the desired Brexit outcome are going nowhere fast.

Special

The US-China trade war in the rerun

The US has raised import tariffs from 10% to 25% on 200bn worth of Chinese goods shipped to US shores and China has vowed to retaliate. In this report, we assess the economic impact of these measures, as well as a scenario where the US-China trade war fully escalates.

Economic Comment

China: Stimulus as good old recipe for stabilization

China’s economic growth did not disappoint at first glance in the first quarter of 2019. It seems that the previously introduced fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have put a floor under the economic slowdown since the second half of 2018, but it’s too early to cheer about a broad recovery.