Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.
Deze week staat weer volledig in het teken van Brexit. Het Verenigd Koninkrijk en de EU intensiveren de gesprekken in aanloop naar de Europese Raad op 17 en 18 oktober. Komt er een akkoord, of gaan we toch weer verlengen?
The EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong, but it remains highly unlikely that a deal will be reached in the next two weeks. This means that there will be yet another showdown in Westminster.
Waarom heeft iedereen het over een recessie, maar voorspellen economen groei? Economen hebben meestal maar één hoofdscenario, waardoor zelfs een aanzienlijk risico van een recessie geen plaats heeft in hun voorspelling. Dat kan beter, stelt Menno Middeldorp.
Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Our growth forecasts for the global economy have been revised downwards. The risk of a global recession has risen. In addition, a continued period of low interest rates harbours risks in the long run.
Economic Quarterly Report
De meest recente economische voorspellingen voor de Nederlandse en internationale economie en de financiële markten.
A lot has happened since we’ve published our previous Brexit Outlook. The clash between the British Government and Parliament was entirely expected, but eventually culminated into an unprecedented series of dramatic events.
Prime Minister Johnson has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament. While it was an explosive move, confrontation between Johnson and Parliament has always been inevitable. The EU has been betting on the UK parliament to intervene, but the window has narrowed. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is obviously rising, but secondary to the risk of a general election.
De komende maanden zullen weer in het teken komen te staan van Brexit. Weet Boris Johnson het parlement naar zijn hand te zetten?
Brexit will get messier under Boris Johnson’s leadership and the British economy is already suffering from the Brexit uncertainty. The economic outlook for 2019 is modest and shadowed by the prospect of a hard Brexit on 31 October.
Boris Johnson is the new British Prime Minister and his team of hardcore Brexiteers points towards a tougher stance on Brexit under his leadership. Brexit is just about to get messier in the coming months.
Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.