Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
We expect global economic growth to weaken further in the coming years. Based on indications on financial markets and weakness in the American housing market, we have penciled in a recession in the US in the course of 2020.
Special
De valuta van de opkomende markten hebben sinds april stevige verliezen genoteerd. Deze Special presenteert een nieuwe heatmap waarmee de kwetsbaarheid van de opkomende markten in kaart wordt gebracht.
Special
We present a ‘new and improved’ version of Rabo’s Emerging Market Vulnerability Heatmap which is constructed from a more comprehensive list of inputs. The heatmap highlights ARS, TRY and ZAR as the most vulnerable emerging market currencies.
Economic Comment
On 22 October, Argentina held legislative mid-term elections and the ruling coalition Cambiemos claimed the victory - an important vote of confidence regarding its reform path.
Economic Report
Having reached rock bottom in 2016, Latin American economies are performing better in 2017. Most countries have fared well the adverse period, though fiscal positions have weakened across the board.
Special
A new government has embarked on a major and much-needed shift in economic policies. The economic recovery is in sight and business opportunities arise in sectors with high catch up potential.
Economic Report
The past year has been tumultuous for Latin American politics, characterised by a shift to the right in election results and away from populism in policy, and numerous corruption scandals. Current risk levels are likely to linger in the coming year.
Special
Latin American currencies remain at the mercy of external factors and in particular global liquidity and central bank policy. And that is unlikely to change in the coming year.
Economic Report
Economic activity in Latin America is expected to pick up in 2017, though the improvement is modest. Few countries enjoy the room to use monetary or fiscal stimulus to give their economies a hand.
Country Report
The Argentinian government is sustaining efforts to open up and normalize the economy, but it is shifting to a more gradual approach given social and political constraints. Important successes have already been booked on the external front.
Economic Comment
Following a court ruling in new York on 19 February Argentina is one step closer to solving a 15 year old debt saga and to regaining access to international markets. However, several conditions have to be met first.
Country Report
Following opposition victory in the November 2015 Argentinian elections, Argentina changes course on economic policy. The shift is good for the business environment, but not without implementation risks.
Column Dutch version
In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.