Economic Report
The great Brexit gamble paid off
The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.
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Economic Quarterly Report Dutch version
Global economic outlook: Recession in the US will be temporary, but slow growth in Germany is structural
We expect the global economy in 2020 and 2021 to show the slowest rate of growth since the financial crisis. This is mainly because the global economy is reaching the limits of its output capacity and industrial activity and world trade are weakening further.
Economic Quarterly Report
Rente en valuta: ongefundeerd optimisme (Dutch)
Het optimisme in de financiële markten is in onze ogen niet houdbaar en wij zien weer lagere rentes in de loop van 2020. Terwijl het Britse pond het meeste positieve nieuws wel heeft verwerkt, blijft de dollar voorlopig sterk. Fed renteverlagingen zullen uiteindelijk wel op de dollar gaan wegen.
Special
The WTO dispute settlement crisis. Back to the GATT regime?
Since 2017 the US has blocked the appointment of new members of WTO’s Appellate Body, which per 11 December is unable to fulfil its tasks. Consequently, trade disputes would again have to be resolved according to the GATT regime, means trade rules will be dictated by the most powerful countries.
Column
Maakt Trump zijn eigen wagenpark duurder? (Dutch)
Zolang de inkt van een fase 1 deal tussen de VS en China niet droog is, zal Trump de invoertarieven op Europese auto’s niet verhogen. Maar de dreiging blijft voorlopig bestaan. Europa en met name Duitsland houdt gespannen de adem in.
Video
De impact van Trump op Europese autotarieven (Dutch)
Hoe waarschijnlijk is het dat de Amerikaanse president Trump de invoertarieven op Europese auto’s zal verhogen en wat zal daarvan de economische impact zijn? Maartje Wijffelaars en Erik-Jan van Harn daarover in deze video.
Special
The Great Brexit Gamble
Even though PM Johnson’s Brexit deal would only lead to limited checks, we don’t expect the EU to accept his proposal. They are treading carefully to avoid any blame and count on the UK Parliament to prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.
Special
We can’t rely on China to drive global economic growth again
China’s lower economic growth together with smaller and more targeted stimulus compared to previous episodes dampen the global outlook. Together with a potential shift in global policy responses, this likely means a new shift lower in bond yields again soon.
Special
Very dangerous European cars part II
Soon, President Trump will announce what to do with tariffs on EU cars. We think he will not hike tariffs just yet, but will keep the tariff threat alive. Within the EU, the German and Hungarian economy are most vulnerable to higher car tariffs in the US.
Column
Nieuwe fase handelsoorlog? (Dutch)
De laatste paar weken wordt het financiële nieuws gedomineerd door het zogenaamde fase-1 akkoord. Dit akkoord heeft in de kern als doel om op korte termijn de handelsoorlog niet verder te laten escaleren.
Economic Report
India could miss the shift underway in global trade, unless...
In our Where Will They Go index (including market size), India tops the list of countries that might benefit from the US-China trade war. The current economic slump weighs on India’s attractiveness as investment destination, which required the government to act by launching structural reforms.
Video
Which countries might benefit from the US-China trade war? (video)
Rabobank economists Hugo Erken and Raphie Hayat talk about what the US-China trade war means for Southeast Asia. Will US companies in China leave? And if so, where will they go? Will Southeast Asian countries emerge as winners from the trade war? Find out in this video update.
Economic Report
Storm in a tea cup or first step towards a transatlantic trade war?
In this report we assess the potential impact of US tariffs on European Union export goods worth USD 7.5bn. The use of a standard GTAP trade model enables us to analyse the economic impact across sectors and countries.