Economic Report
Conservative party New Democracy (ND) beats ruling populist party Syriza in Greek legislative elections. Greek public debt is still staggeringly high at 181%, but there are some positive signs that could improve debt metrics.
Economic Report
Op 20 augustus eindigde het derde Griekse schuldprogramma. Op de korte termijn komt de Griekse overheid vermoedelijk niet in de betalingsproblemen. Op de langere termijn is verdere schuldverlichting noodzakelijk om wanbetalingen te voorkomen.
Economic Comment
Een grote cash buffer en nieuwe schuldverlichtingsmaatregelen verlagen het risico dat de Griekse overheid op de korte termijn in de betalingsproblemen komt. Ze blijft echter nog lang afhankelijk van de barmhartigheid van Eurozone partners en de markten.
Special
A large cash buffer and new debt relief measures limit the risk the Greek government runs into payment difficulties in the short run. Yet due to its high debt Greece stays dependent upon the mercy of Eurozone partners and the markets for a long time.
Special
In many Eurozone countries, private sector debt has decreased in recent years and so has the vulnerability of the private sector to higher interest rates. Yet in many countries debt remains high and in several countries vulnerabilities are still present.
Economic Comment Dutch version
Despite deleveraging in recent years, private sector debt remains high in many Eurozone countries. The private sector in Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Finland and Luxembourg is most vulnerable to higher interest rates.
Economic Comment
Griekenland krijgt 8,6 miljard euro van Europa. Betalingsproblemen op de korte termijn zijn hierdoor van de baan. Europa heeft echter nog niet gespecificeerd hoe ze de Griekse schuld zal verlichten, de schuldhoudbaarheid blijft daardoor twijfelachtig.
Special Dutch version
Greece needs money to repay creditors in July. Debt relief is the main outstanding issue retarding the transfer of funds from creditors to Athens. We believe Greece will receive funds in time to prevent a default, but question debt sustainability.
Economic Comment
Weak private and public finances prior to the crisis are to blame for the severity of the recession and the public debt crisis. Harsh measures triggered a process of sharp economic contraction. The outlook remains bleak and unemployment and debt sky-high.
Economic Report
SYRIZA wint opnieuw de Griekse verkiezingen. De nieuwe regering is hoogstwaarschijnlijk meer bereid om te doen wat nodig is om Griekenland in de eurozone te houden dan de vorige. De kans op hernieuwde onrust blijft de komende jaren echter groot.
Economic Report
Het derde steunpakket aan Griekenland is op 19 augustus officieel goedgekeurd. De kans op een Grexit op de korte termijn is hierdoor afgenomen. Het is echter onzeker of het pakket succesvol is. De kans op onrust blijft in de komende jaren groot.
Economic Comment Dutch version
In the past months, the tensions between Greece and its creditors have grown and so has the risk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. It is only recently that the Greek government seems willing to give in to the tough demands of Europe in return for financial support. Yet it is far from clear when the crisis will be defused and what exactly this will entail.
