RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

India: Economic growth set to plunge as uncertainty rises

We have revised our economic projections for India downwards and expect the economy to contract by 2.9% in fiscal 2020/21. The economic stimulus package of 20 lakh crore is expected to prop up growth this fiscal year by 1.8ppts, but more unconventional policy measures (such as debt monetization) seem necessary.

Economic Report

The shape of India’s exit from the COVID-19 crisis

We expect the COVID-19 crisis to cost each Indian between INR 8,000 to 16,000 in 2025 of missed economic growth compared to a benchmark scenario of no pandemic, depending on the shape of the recovery. However, if the USD 270bn recent stimulus package addresses India’s structural weakness and is properly executed, India’s economy could even emerge stronger from the COVID-19 crisis.

Economic Comment

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.

Special

Four rays of hope amid the gloom of coronavirus

The coronavirus has a devastating impact on societies and economies, but never before have so many resources been channelled at finding ways to mitigate a virus. Hopes are pinned on vaccines, medicines, testing and increased health care capacity.

Special

Economic implications of the coronavirus

The recent coronavirus outbreak will likely affect China’s economic growth, and could also have global ramifications. which will likely be more severe than compared to the SARS outbreak 17 years ago because China has become much bigger and more intertwined globally.

Video

Video - India: Economic Outlook 2020

Rabobank economists Raphie Hayat and Hugo Erken discuss their economic outlook for India in 2020. Elements that are elaborated on are the economic growth forecasts, structural issues in the economy, fiscal and monetary policy options and the forecasts for the Indian rupee.

Special

India: Economic Outlook 2020

We forecast economic growth in India of 5.1% for fiscal year 2019/20 and 5.7% for 2020/21. Although we expect the economy to have bottomed out, ongoing structural issues are expected to weigh on India’s medium- and longer-term growth potential.

Special

Trade deal China-US: Phase One, Phase None

The Phase 1 trade deal signed by the US and China in January 2020 has created a temporary but unstable equilibrium. The deal could still collapse and a re-acceleration of trade tensions in 2020 remains our base scenario.