RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Is a US trade war imminent?

Trump’s protectionist steel decision increases the risk of a trade war. But a full scale trade war would hurt the US economy even more than China and the EU.

Column

De economie van de teleurstelling (Dutch)

Teleurstelling over inkomensgroei leidt tot ontevredenheid in binnen en buitenland. Ook is er teleurstelling op het gebied van pensioenen. Maar teleurstelling is niet een onderwerp waar economen zich vaak mee bezig houden.

Special

US: Is there rising wage growth on the horizon?

We predict wage growth to peak at 3.0 to 3.3% in the next two years. While this is higher than current levels, it’s on the low end of the Fed’s preferred range. At the same time, our models show that we’re already getting close to the peak of the economic cycle.