RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Peru

Investment in large mining projects is likely to continue in Peru, although an escalation in the conflict with local communities could hurt the investment climate. A U-turn in his energy policies has dented the popularity of President Humala.

Column

Doe het op z'n Amerikaans (Dutch)

Het Europese economische herstel wil maar niet overtuigend van de grond. Beleidsmakers zitten met de handen in het haar. Het bedrijfsleven maakt zich grote zorgen over zowel de schrale economische vooruitzichten als de beperkte toegang tot krediet.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

The recent batch of positive data suggest that the recovery has arrived. The recent pick up of sentiment and loosening of financial conditions suggest that activity will slowly gather pace in the coming months. But the growth outlook remains weak.

Country Report

Country Report Botswana

Botswana’s economy remains largely dependent on diamond mining. As a result of weak external demand for diamonds, economic growth has slowed down last year. The fiscal position improved substantially and the budget is now recording a small surplus.

Country Report

Country Report Tunisia

Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.

Country Report

Country Report Morocco

The popular Moroccan king maintains political stability, but the macroeconomic imbalances are aggravating as long as reforming the excessive subsidy bill is staved off.

Country Report

Country Report Angola

Angola is an oil-rich country and Africa’s second largest oil exporter. Angola’s economic growth is highly dependent on oil price developments and a declining international oil price will therefore remain a cause of concern.

Country Report

Country Report Colombia

Peace talks between the FARC and the government are likely to be protracted, but could boost the reputation of Colombia and the energy sector. Meanwhile, an important tax reform could reduce the high income inequality and labour informality.

Country Report

Country Report Philippines

The Philippines has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability despite a weak external environment. Meanwhile, helped by large and steady remittances inflows, the country’s external (liquidity) position remains strong.

Country Report

Country Report Argentina

Argentina’s economy is likely to recover modestly in 2013, but the peso has fallen rapidly on the informal market, as a devaluation is widely expected. Meanwhile, there is the risk that Argentina will enter a technical default.

Country Report

Country Report Aruba

The shutdown of Aruba’s oil refinery has put a major drag on economic growth. The economy contracted by -1.2% in 2012, while the growth figure for 2011 was revised downwards. Due to the GDP contraction, public finance ratio’s worsened considerably.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Frankrijk (Dutch)

De milde BBP-krimp waar Frankrijk al een jaar mee kampt lijkt ook in 13K2 aan te houden. De twee jaar uitstel om te voldoen aan de begrotingsnorm van 3%-BBP voorkomt een onwenselijk zware bezuinigingsinspanning die het herstel verder zou tegenwerken.

Economic Update

Conjunctuurbeeld Verenigd Koninkrijk (Dutch)

Recente data wijst erop dat het herstel is aangebroken. De verbetering van het vertrouwen en de ruimere financiele condities wijzen op toenemende economische activiteit. Zwakke buitenlandse vraag zal echter de groeivooruitzichten blijven bepalen.

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

If being disappointed is worse than being angry, the World is in a terrible place. However, one can read two things into disappointment either: the performance is really bad, or the expectations were too high.