RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

Argentina: open for business

A new government has embarked on a major and much-needed shift in economic policies. The economic recovery is in sight and business opportunities arise in sectors with high catch up potential.

Economic Report

India: where is the negative impact of demonetization?

The Indian economy grew by 7% in Q4 of 2016, which is surprising given that India was struck by an unexpected demonetization operation. The explanation can be found in underrepresentation of the informal economy in statistics and overestimation of the role of the private corporate sector.

Economic Quarterly Report

Beren op de weg, maar eurozone blijft op stoom in 2017 (Dutch)

De economie van de eurozone blijft op stoom in 2017 en 2018. Er heerst in 2017 nog onzekerheid door een volle politieke agenda. Er zijn ook opwaartse risico’s: groei kan positief verassen en lonen kunnen harder groeien dan verwacht.

Economic Quarterly Report

Rente en Valuta: nieuw realisme? (Dutch)

In de rentemarkten is het optimisme over de plannen van Trump wat getemperd, hoewel een renteverhoging door de Fed op korte termijn nu zeer waarschijnlijk lijkt. In Europa blijft politieke onzekerheid een belangrijke factor voor zowel de rente- als valutamarkt in de komende maanden, wat een reden is om geen substantiële monetaire beleidswijzigingen door de ECB te verwachten.

Economic Report

China: how realistic is the government’s growth target?

China’s 6.7% GDP growth was on government’s track in 2016, but lower growth is expected ahead as focus will rely more and more on risk prevention amid excessive credit levels, a housing market bubble, and capital outflows.

Special

Trump's executive orders

While executive orders allow the President to act unilaterally, the US political system has several checks and balances in place that give the Congress and the courts the power to derail or overturn his decisions. Trade conflicts are the main downside risk of Trump’s executive orders.

Economic Report

The (potential) impact of Trump on Asia Pacific

Trump’s policy regarding Asia presents a downside risk for APAC’s economy and security situation. If the US increase trade barriers, this is expected to have major implications for the region. Even more so if there would be protectionist retaliations.