RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Update

Economic Update Emerging Markets

In our final economic update of this year, we present our regional outlooks for next year. While we generally expect a fragile economic recovery, some regions are particularly exposed to the euro area debt crisis or an unresolved US fiscal cliff.

Economic Update

Economic Update United Kingdom

UK's GDP was boosted by temporary factors in 12Q3. Output is expected to contract in 12Q4. The improvement in the labour market is slowing down. Inflation is expected to fall less rapidly, which will be an extra headwind for households in 2013.

Economic Update

Economic Update France

After the pickup in 12K3, several indicators point to a deterioration of economic activity in 12K4. For 2013 domestic demand is expected to remain weak amid large tax hikes, which will be imposed on both households and businesses.

Economic Update

Economic Update Italy

In the third quarter, the Italian recession was more moderate than in the first half of the year. Although business sentiment improved in the past months, the recession is set to continue.

Economic Report

Risk of de-globalization

This article is part of a series of Special Reports that discuss the downside risks to the global economic outlook. In this piece, we take a closer look at the risk of de-globalisation.

Country Report

Latvia (Country Report)

Following its very deep recession in 2008/10, Latvia currently belongs to the fastest-growing EU member states. Thanks to its successful austerity strategy and low inflation, the country could join the euro area in 2014.


Outlook 2013: Latin America and Caribbean

While a more challenging external environment has contributed to somewhat slower economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2012, earlier overheating and inflation pressures have abated in most countries.


Outlook 2013: Middle East and North Africa

The revolution that shook the Arab world in 2011, continues to affect the region's economic performance and political stability. In addition, the region is sensitive to the ongoing crisis in the eurozone and slowing growth in the rest of the world.


Outlook 2013: Russia and CIS

The outlook for economic growth in Russia and the CIS region for 2013 is mostly unchanged from our 2012 estimates. We discuss the economic policy options to boost economic growth next year. However the uncertain global economic backdrop poses a risk.


Outlook 2013: China

Weakened external demand and only limited growth supporting policies from the Chinese government were the main factors explaining China's slowing growth rate in the first three quarters of 2012. Growth is expected to accelerate this year and in 2013.


Outlook 2013: Emerging Asia

In 2013, global economic growth is expected to be 3?%, with growth estimated to remain subdued in the US (1?%), the eurozone (?%) and Japan (1%). China's economy is expected to grow by between 7?% and 8?%.


Outlook 2013: Emerging Europe

The start of 2012 saw many Emerging European economies fall back into recession. Although the outlook for 2013 is somewhat less bleak, there is little reason for optimism. The region's proximity to the eurozone renders it vulnerable.


Outlook 2013: Eurozone

While desperately in need of growth, eurozone's GDP is unlikely to pick up in the second half of this year. Although market sentiment regarding the European debt crisis seems to be on a cautious positive trend, the outlook for 2013 is bleak.


Outlook 2013: Lower growth is the new reality

In 2013 the Dutch economy will show a very low growth rate of just 0.25%. Globally, the emerging markets will drive economic growth mostly. We project that, mainly as a result of the euro crisis, the global economy will grow by only 3.75% in 2013.


Outlook 2013: Sub-Sahara Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa has grown rapidly over the past decade. Despite the global financial crisis of 2008-09, Sub-Saharan Africa has grown at an average of 4.7% between 2000-2010 and might experience accelerated growth relative to the past few years.