RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The great Brexit gamble paid off

The great Brexit gamble paid off: Prime Minister Johnson got his majority in the House of Commons and he will now be able to ‘get Brexit done’. The UK will leave the EU by January 31.

Economic Report

Brexit Update - Extension rebellion

Whilst ‘Super Saturday’ turned into a Brexit anti-climax, it also became clear that Prime Minister Johnson actually might have the numbers to get his deal through. This may change when the deal will be scrutinized.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update - Blame games

The EU and the UK are treading carefully to avoid any blame when things go wrong, but it remains highly unlikely that a deal will be reached in the next two weeks. This means that there will be yet another showdown in Westminster.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update - Hurricane Brexit

A lot has happened since we’ve published our previous Brexit Outlook. The clash between the British Government and Parliament was entirely expected, but eventually culminated into an unprecedented series of dramatic events.

Economic Comment

Brexit update – Brexit 2.0

Boris Johnson is the new British Prime Minister and his team of hardcore Brexiteers points towards a tougher stance on Brexit under his leadership. Brexit is just about to get messier in the coming months.

Economic Report

Brexit update - Johnson in the lead

Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Game over?

Theresa May has said she will resign on 7 June, after her last attempt to save the EU-UK deal failed to garner sufficient support last week. A tougher stance on Brexit and more political turmoil are likely to follow.

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Going nowhere fast

The UK held local elections in England and Northern Ireland on May, 2nd. The Conservatives and Labour took a drubbing in the polls. Meanwhile, Tory- Labour talks on the desired Brexit outcome are going nowhere fast.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Flextension, the sequel

Article 50 was extended for a second time during a special EU summit on 10 April. The new cut-off date is 31 October, the date by which the UK must have approved the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and have translated it to domestic law. An earlier departure is possible as soon as the UK ratifies a withdrawal deal with the EU.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: In uncharted territory, again

Article 50 was extended during the EU Summit of 21-22 March. The new cut-off date is 12 April, the deadline for UK to either approve the Withdrawal Agreement or come up with a follow up plan that includes a decision on holding European Parliament (EP) elections.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Out of control

An extension of article 50 is highly likely now that the British Parliament approved this outcome on 14 March, However, given complications around holding a third meaningful vote on the deal, the final decision on the extension could come as late as 29 March.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Leading on the edge or off the edge?

On 14 February another British Parliament vote on Brexit passed by without any change of course. PM May might take Brexit to the wire in order to prevent a large rupture of the Conservative Party and maintain pressure on various decision makers. 27 February looks like the next milestone.

Economic Comment

Brexit Update: Extreme brinkmanship

The British Parliament rejected the EU-UK Brexit deal on 14 January in a historic defeat for the government. The vote was expected to be a unique opportunity to change the Brexit course, but instead it left us in the same uncertainty.