RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Report

The race to predict India’s economic data

We show that so-called nowcasting can be used to gauge economic growth in India more accurately. We correctly predicted India’s recent slump in economic activity. Moreover, nowcasting can also be used to validate recent claims that India’s GDP figures are overestimated. We find not ground for these claims.

Economic Report

Recession and CLOs

While CLOs performed well during the last crisis, and there is less dependence on short-term wholesale funding, the rise of loans with reduced investor protection and illiquidity are risk factors that could turn a run-of-the-mill recession into something worse.

Economic Report

Brexit update - Johnson in the lead

Conservative MP’s have pre-selected Johnson and Hunt as the candidates the party member can vote for to become the new PM. Johnson has so far been in the lead, which spells a lot of trouble for Brexit.

Economic Report

Digitaal centralebankgeld: bezint eer ge begint (Dutch)

De WRR bepleit invoering van digitaal centralebankgeld (CBDC). Dit is een forse verandering van het financiële stelsel. Het leidt tot hoge kosten, kan de stabiliteit ondermijnen en noopt tot een nieuwe inrichting van het bancaire toezicht. Goed idee?

Economic Report

Brexit Update: Going nowhere fast

The UK held local elections in England and Northern Ireland on May, 2nd. The Conservatives and Labour took a drubbing in the polls. Meanwhile, Tory- Labour talks on the desired Brexit outcome are going nowhere fast.

Economic Report

Is India slipping back into bad habits?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its monetary tap to meet government funding needs. Although the magnitude is nowhere near bad practices around the globe, the option of debt monetization remains tempting, whereas the Indian government should implement reforms instead.