RaboResearch - Economic Research

Column Dutch version

Green in a red context

The introduction of our annual publication ‘Outlook 2016’ is entitled ‘Green in an orange context’. Orange stands for the many risks which surround our economic scenarios. Last weekend’s terrorist attacks in Paris are evidence that one of the risks has reared its ugly head.

Column Dutch version

Outlook 2016: green surrounded by orange

In an international climate where so many indicators are orange, we should count our blessings for now that the Netherlands is set to be a green oasis both this year and next. Things have looked rather different in recent years.

Country Report

Country Report Bulgaria

Growth in Bulgaria remains weak and fiscal balances have been deteriorating, though from a low base. The banking sector has weathered last year’s crisis well, but further measures are necessary to improve its resilience in the future

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

Economic growth in Luxembourg remains strong, but international regulatory changes could chal-lenge the country’s economic model and strong fiscal position in the future.

Country Report

Country report United Kingdom

The UK economy has seen more balanced growth lately: wage growth has returned, debt levels are gradually falling and the housing market has cooled down. However, a low Euro weighs on export performance while the risk of a Brexit has increased.

Country Report

Country report Portugal

The Portuguese economy returned to growth in 2014 but medium term prospects remain weak. Meanwhile, with an election this year, the reform effort while this year’s budget is based on overly optimistic assumptions.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain its competitiveness while domestic demand strengthens. The low quality of employment created may hurt productivity growth. We expect to see political fragmentation at the national level.

Country Report

Country report Ireland

The strong rebound of the Irish economy supported private sector deleveraging while the housing prices rebounded strongly. With the budget deficit down and political stability enduring, the situation in Ireland is set to improve further.

Country Report

Country report Italy

Italy’s economy shrank again in 2014, and is expected to only recover slowly. Political stability has improved a bit and the government’s reform agenda is promising. Some major reforms have already been achieved, but progress is and will remain slow.

Country Report

Country Report Belgium

The new centre-right government plans to target the budget deficit and Belgian firms’ competitiveness. Thanks to various measures implemented by the former and current government, the increase in unit labour costs came to halt in 2014.

Country Report

Country Report France

In the short-term, low oil prices and the weak euro will support economic growth. But the French economy also faces many structural challenges, including a relatively weak competitiveness position, high unemployment and weak public finances.

Country Report

Country Report Germany

The German economy performs well on the back of improved domestic demand and a competitive export sector. The public sector is effective in reducing debt. The housing market in the big cities remains buoyant, but is moderating slowly.