RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Russia: bottoming out?

Russia’s economy might be finally bottoming out after recording a 5% yoy contraction in 2Q15, the sharpest in six years. However the growth outlook remains bleak due to structurally lower oil prices, existing sanctions and lack of structural reforms.

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.

Country Report

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Country Report

Zambia: headwinds due to low copper prices

Low copper prices and lower copper production have pulled the trade balance in negative territory and increased the budget deficit. This combined with a sharp depreciation of the kwacha has increased public debt.

Country Report

Argentina: winds of change

Argentina is heading for change as the October 2015 elections are approaching. However, the economic tide will take longer to change as macroeconomic imbalances are large and increasing.

Country Report

Peru: losing steam

Falling commodity prices take their toll on the Peruvian economy and currency. Political vacuum leaves room for more radical outsiders in the 2016 elections.

Country Report

Chile: economic reality holds back reforms

Despite low copper prices, growth picks up modestly on the back of government stimulus and external rebalancing, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Economic reality and Bachelet’s low popular approval rates hold back reform ambitions.

Country Report

Brazil: headwinds intensify

Brazil is experiencing the strongest contraction in the last two decades on the back of an unfavourable environment, a frontloaded adjustment of economic policy and prevailing negative sentiment. Increasing political tensions complicate the situation.