RaboResearch - Economic Research

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Ireland

The build-up of large private sector imbalances related to a housing boom and the financial sector were the prime cause of the crisis. Ireland has successfully reformed its banking sector and economic performance is strong, but challenges remain.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Portugal

Both high private and public sector debt prior to the crisis are to blame for the country’s deep recession and public debt crisis. It remains to be seen whether Portugal’s low growth problem has been addressed, with unemployment and indebtedness still very high.

Economic Comment

Eurozone (debt) crisis: Country Profile Italy

Public sector debt was already very high and economic growth very weak in the years prior to the crisis. Private sector debt was and still is relatively low. Despite recent structural reforms, the economic outlook remains rather weak and unemployment and public debt high.

Country Report

Russia: bottoming out?

Russia’s economy might be finally bottoming out after recording a 5% yoy contraction in 2Q15, the sharpest in six years. However the growth outlook remains bleak due to structurally lower oil prices, existing sanctions and lack of structural reforms.

Country Report

Kenya: climbing economy, sliding currency

Kenya’s economy continues to grow strongly, but the depreciating currency poses short term risks for inflation and debt service. In the medium term, elections in 2018 could give rise to increased ethnic tensions and result in civil unrest.

Economic Comment

Bloeiende wereldhandelsgroei niet langer een zekerheid (Dutch)

De wereldhandelsgroei blijft al vijf jaar achter bij de economische groei. Deze trend wordt deels gevoed door handelsbelemmeringen die op termijn ook de economische activiteit kunnen remmen en dus is beleidsingrijpen vereist.

Country Report

South Africa: exacerbating structural problems

South Africa’s growth outlook is held back by low investor confidence and structural weaknesses in areas such as infrastructure, labour and competition. Neither of these are likely to be addressed in the current financial and political climate.

Country Report

Chile: economic reality holds back reforms

Despite low copper prices, growth picks up modestly on the back of government stimulus and external rebalancing, but risks remain tilted to the downside. Economic reality and Bachelet’s low popular approval rates hold back reform ambitions.

Economic Comment

Brazil is back to junk

Brazil lost its investment grade with S&P on 9 September. The downgrade underlines Brazil’s enormous fiscal challenges. Political headwinds could further darken the fiscal and economic outlook.

Country Report

Country Report Lebanon

Lebanon’s economy continues to show weak growth in 2014 (3%), being adversely effected by the conflict in Syria. But the banking sector remains healthy and Lebanon still has ample foreign reserves, which mitigates its otherwise high country risk.

Country Report

Country Report Jordan

Jordan’s economic situation is improving. GDP growth has picked up to 3.1% in 2014, driven by lower oil prices and growth in the tourism sector. The greatest risk is still that the conflicts in Syria and Iraq will lead to negative spill-overs.

Country Report

Country Report China

Concerns about a Chinese slowdown have increased, but most indicators suggest that the downturn is concentrated in industry and construction. The direct impact of the stock market rout is limited, but it has damaged the credibility of the crucial reform agenda of the government.