RaboResearch - Economic Research

Special

US elections: Economy or identity?

While economists have framed the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election in terms of economic inequality, the loss of manufacturing jobs, and stagnating income, the empirical evidence rejects these claims and suggests that identity played a more important role than the economy.

Special

Brexit: Keep Talking

The mandates of Brexit negotiators Barnier and Frost don’t ‘click’, no matter how long they keep talking. As the talks go down the wire, political intervention remains necessary to break the deadlock.

Special

US: Turbulence ahead

A second wave of Covid-19, contested elections, civil unrest, rising tensions with China and insufficient fiscal stimulus provide a toxic cocktail that are likely to pose a threat to the recovery and cause considerable market turbulence in Q4.

Special

Will COVID-19 force a Brexit extension?

Markets and media are focused on everything related to Covid-19, yet the Brexit-clock ticks away in the background. The first real deadlines are nearing fast. There are plenty of compelling arguments to extend the transition period; we challenge the conventional wisdom and look for reasons why the UK government would not ask for more time.

Economic Comment

India: Extended lockdown causes further economic distress

Due to the extended lockdown until 3 May, we have revised our economic outlook and expect the Indian economy to contract by 8.7% in Q2 and the fiscal year 2020/21 to arrive at 1.2%. We also expect the RBI to cut policy rates by another 90 basis points in June, and it might initiate a cap on the reverse repo window or even adopt debt monetization.