Special Dutch version
The oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries suffer from the oil price slump while diversification will prove difficult. In the short-run, the necessary budgetary consolidation Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia will weigh on political risk.
Economic Comment
According to the World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency the oil sector is adjusting to the new reality after the sharp oil price shock of 2014. And that translates to low though increasing oil prices.
Special Dutch version
While most economies in the world kept growing, oil prices more than halved in the second half of 2014. What triggered this dramatic drop and what does it mean for the future?
Country Report
Domestic stability in Egypt has improved markedly and the economy is showing timid signs of recovery. The government has engaged in bold reforms and generous aid from the GCC countries gives Egypt the financial space to gradually implement them.
Country Report
Weaker oil markets are hurting Saudi Arabia given the high reliance of the economy and government income on the hydrocarbon sector. Fortunately, strong financial buffers provide sufficient mitigation for now.
Country Report
Kuwait’s hydrocarbon dependent economy slowed in 2013 and prospects for 2014 are stable. The political focus seems to be shifting towards the crown prince succession, which might stall progress booked on economic reforms in the past year.
Country Report
A generous financial lifeline from the GCC countries kept the Egyptian economy afloat in 2013 and will do so again in 2014. However, persistent polarisation of the Egyptian society makes the country’s future highly uncertain.
Country Report
The ouster of president Morsi placed Egypt on a new political transition trajectory – unfortunately, not a more democratic one. Generous assistance from the GCC countries gives Egypt financial breathing space, but economic perspectives remain bleak due to unaddressed structural problems.
Country Report
The political stalemate in Egypt pushes the downtrodden economy further into the abyss. However, Egypt is expected to muddle through until the elections, but the downside risks are high.
Country Report
Political polarization and an upsurge in radicalization make stability maintenance a challenge for Tunisia, while its realization is essential for a recovery of the economy and for restoring the increasing external and fiscal imbalances.
Country Report
The popular Moroccan king maintains political stability, but the macroeconomic imbalances are aggravating as long as reforming the excessive subsidy bill is staved off.