RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

Portugal has made considerable progress regarding the implementation of structural reforms and safeguarding financial stability. However, the high short-term socioeconomic costs have increased political instability, which might weigh on support for further reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

The short term pain of the macroeconomic rebalancing process is clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms. Without a more vigorous cleanup of the banking sector, it will remain a large drag on the recovery going forward.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy has to deal with a severe crisis and large public debt stock. Non-performing loans in the banking sector are on the rise, while government bond yields are vulnerable to political instability. Given large debt dynamics, Italy should improve its potential growth rate to ensure debt sustainability.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special Dutch version

Outlook 2014 - Recovery on a shaky footing

The Dutch economy will not grow in 2014. Unemployment will rise further, and the slight boost provided by the global growth spurt will not be vigorous enough for the country to overcome its domestic woes. US economic performance and the modest eurozone recovery account for more than half the global growth spurt.

Special

Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater - Theme brochure Outlook 2014

To coincide with the publication of our macroeconomic Outlook 2014, we are publishing a special companion report titled Don’t throw the euro out with the bathwater. In this publication, we present our views on the euro crisis and the future of the monetary union. One of the conclusions of the report is that the current institutional reforms are not far-reaching enough to make the EMU fully immune to future crises.

Special

Gooi de euro niet met het badwater weg - Themabrochure Visie op 2014 (Dutch)

Tegelijkertijd met onze macro-economische Visie op 2014 publiceren we de thema-uitgave Gooi de euro niet met het badwater weg. Daarin geven we onze visie op de eurocrisis en het voortbestaan van de muntunie. Zo concluderen we dat de huidige institutionele hervormingen niet vérstrekkend genoeg zijn om de EMU volledig immuun te maken voor toekomstige crises.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has taken further steps to tackle its banking crisis, but progress has been delayed by an extensive asset quality review that is yet to reveal the true scale of the problem. Depending on the outcome, an EU-led bailout may be needed soon.

Special

Bankenunie: implicaties voor de Europese bankensector (Dutch)

De bankenunie vormt een belangrijke bouwsteen van de institutionele herinrichting van de eurozone. Dit artikel beschrijft de implicaties van de bankenunie voor de Europese bankensector, zowel op de korte als op de lange termijn.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The third free presidential elections in Indonesia’s history (1H2014) will bring a new president into office, as Yudhoyono is barred from participating after completing two terms. There is no clear favorite, increasing policy uncertainty. Also, the external position is weakening.

Country Report

Country Report Cameroon

In 2012, the economic performance of Cameroon improved on the back of the oil sector, while the political risks persisted, despite milestones having been achieved.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Due to a weak external environment, Taiwan’s economy has been performing weakly, but a slight growth acceleration is expected. Political infighting in the ruling KMT party has weakened the president’s position and will hamper policy implementation.