RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report France

In the short-term at least, further fiscal austerity and weak employment growth will continue to constrain economic growth. Furthermore, the French economy faces many structural challenges, but still has robust fundamentals.

Country Report

Country Report Belgium

Despite the recovery of the economy, it has lost competitiveness due to higher labour cost and lower productivity growth than European countries. The government deficit decreased below 3% of GDP but the government debt level remains high.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

Despite the improvement of the short term economic outlook, several bottlenecks of the Spanish economy (rigid labour market, weak banking sector) desire policy urgency. Unfortunately, upcoming elections are clearly weighing on the political support to continue with necessary reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Greece

The outlook of the Greek economy outlook is improving, while progress under the bailout program remains broadly on track. That said, future political stability cannot be taken for granted and might weigh on the ability to push through with reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Portugal

The outlook for Portugal has improved in recent months, in terms of both economic recovery and future market access. However, this and next year’s election cycle are expected to weigh on support for further structural reforms.

Country Report

Country Report Denmark

The economic outlook is improving, public and external balance sheets are healthy, and institutions strong. Denmark’s banking system has become more stable, though large dependence on wholesale funding does pose risks. But, the main source of concern is the very high household debt.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

Italy’s recession has come to an end, but the crisis continues. Though, household financial wealth has remained high and the political situation seems to have improved a bit; yet words still have to be turned into action. Besides, weak institutions and large public debt remain a major issue.

Country Report

Country Report Luxembourg

The economy of Luxembourg took a positive turn in 2013 and the already strong fiscal position improved. However, in the longer term, the country needs to deal with challenges such as legislative harmonisation at the EU level and rising ageing costs.

Country Report

Country Report Ireland

Ireland exited the EU/IMF bailout package in December 2013, and has regained market confidence. Nonetheless, challenges remain as the country remains dependent on the external environment, and skeletons may yet come out of the closet.

Country Report

Country Report Germany

The German economy performs well due to their competitive export sector and improving domestic demand. The housing market in the big cities is buoyant, but countrywide, there are no signs of overheating.

Country Report

Country Report Cyprus

Cyprus is in the midst of a severe economic depression. With aid from the EU and IMF, the country is slowly picking itself up, but there is a long road ahead. Negotiations on reunification of the island have recommenced and could (in the long term) lead to an improvement in the economic environment.

Country Report

Country Report Malta

Stronger economic growth and improved fiscal balances place Malta in a better position than a year ago, but challenges, such as the structurally high public debt, remain.

Country Report

Country Report Finland

Finland has to deal with a weak economic outlook, waning export sectors, a rapidly ageing population and private sector debt. That said, its public finances and banking system are solid, institutions are strong and the business sector is competitive.

Country Report

Country Report Estonia

Estonia’s economic growth will moderate this year, but due to the turmoil in Ukraine the risks are tilted to the downside. Meanwhile, Estonia’s fiscal position remains strong.