RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

The third free presidential elections in Indonesia’s history (1H2014) will bring a new president into office, as Yudhoyono is barred from participating after completing two terms. There is no clear favorite, increasing policy uncertainty. Also, the external position is weakening.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Due to a weak external environment, Taiwan’s economy has been performing weakly, but a slight growth acceleration is expected. Political infighting in the ruling KMT party has weakened the president’s position and will hamper policy implementation.

Country Report

Country Report China

Growth in China is rebounding but, unfortunately, still driven by investment growth on the back of government stimulus and credit growth. The government thus still prioritizes on short-term growth, which makes implementing reforms a difficult task.

Country Report

Country Report India

The market anticipation of Fed QE tapering has sent the Indian rupee to record lows. However, India is not a blameless victim. It struggles with fundamental issues constraining economic growth, large twin deficits and a declining investor confidence on the back of inadequate economic reforms.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

Supported by government measures, real GDP growth in South Korea has been accelerating. Meanwhile, tensions with North Korea have eased, for now. South Korea’s banking sector remains vulnerable to external liquidity risks and rising household debt.

Country Report

Country Report Sri Lanka

Although economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed down last year, elevated inflation remains a concern. While both the budget deficit and the current account deficit declined slightly in 2012, both deficits remain large.

Country Report

Country Report Mongolia

Mongolia’s economy slowed in 2012 on the back of lower demand from China and slowing FDI inflows. The government has implemented policies to support growth. A more cooperative stance towards foreign investors should help to regain their confidence.

Country Report

Country Report Philippines

The Philippines has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability despite a weak external environment. Meanwhile, helped by large and steady remittances inflows, the country’s external (liquidity) position remains strong.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Thailand’s economy grew robustly last year, but concerns about asset bubbles are emerging. Thanks to prime minister Shinawatra’s cautious policies regarding the return of her exiled brother Thaksin, social tensions calmed down, but remain present.

Country Report

Country Report Indonesia

Indonesia has outperformed most countries in the World throughout the crisis on the back of domestic demand. In order to maintain that growth level, and not be faced with increasing inflation, the country will need to seek structural improvements.

Country Report

Country Report Australia

The economy performs well thanks to its strong trade links with China, but with growth being narrowly driven by the mining business. The currency is very strong, which erodes price competitiveness of non-commodity exports.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

Economic growth slowed down in 2012. Going forward, activity is expected to pick up only slowly in 2013. Long-run growth prospects remain weak, caused by the aging population and subdued labour productivity growth in the services sector.

Country Report

Country Report Singapore

Singapore’s recovery is expected to gather some steam but we cannot expect growth to be very high in a weak external environment. The outlook is clouded by significant downside risks from the external sector.

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Recent policy initiatives of the new Prime Minster suggest that Japan’s economic activity will be picking up in the near-term. But the medium-term prospects are less rosy. Achieving debt sustainability requires credible fiscal consolidation plans.

Country Report

Country Report Brunei

Brunei is dependent on the hydrocarbon sector, but it gives the country a comfortable external position and allows the government to be generous to the population. As a result, there is little dissatisfaction with the slow democratization process.