RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report China

Concerns about a Chinese slowdown have increased, but most indicators suggest that the downturn is concentrated in industry and construction. The direct impact of the stock market rout is limited, but it has damaged the credibility of the crucial reform agenda of the government.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

Economic growth is slowly decelerating in New Zealand due to prolonged low commodity prices. Low milk prices put a strain on the dairy sector. Meanwhile, the RBNZ in general softened its LTV restrictions, but tightened it for the Auckland area.

Country Report

Country Report Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan had a less fortunate economic year in 2014, caused by the decreasing oil price in the second half of last year and the negative wealth effects as a result of the tenge devaluation. For 2015, substantially lower economic growth and twin deficits are expected.

Country Report

Country Report Malaysia

Growth in Malaysia is expected to slow slightly in the coming years. Lower oil prices will hurt government income in 2015. As the political career of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has ended, the opposition coalition has been weakened.

Country Report

Country report Singapore

Strong institutions and policymaking support (potential) GDP growth, while the country’s small size and ageing pose challenges. Healthy balance sheets and a solid international creditor position reduce Singapore’s susceptibility to (global) shocks.

Country Report

Country Report India

India is experiencing an upward momentum. Growth is accelerating and the government is incrementally implementing needed reforms, inflation is easing and the current account deficit has narrowed.

Country Report

Country Report Australia

Economic growth in Australia is slowing due to lower mining investments and lower prices for its commodities. This also negatively affects the government budget. Meanwhile, private consumption is still backed by the rising house prices.

Country Report

Country Report New Zealand

New Zealand experiences relatively strong, domestic-driven, economic growth. A major risk to the outlook is the current deterioration of the terms-of-trade. Meanwhile, the central bank slowed down the potentially overheating housing market.

Country Report

Country report China

Growth in China is slowing. The housing market adjustment is probably not yet over, while the government may soon allow some trust loan defaults. The anti-corruption campaign has continued.

Country Report

Country Report Vietnam

According to official data economic growth in Vietnam has strengthened over the course of 2014, without any signs of renewed overheating. However, problems in the banking sector remain sizeable, which limits credit growth.

Country Report

Country Report Thailand

Almost a year after its coup, Thailand’s economic growth only recovers gradually amid lingering uncertainty about the future direction of the country. While the imposition of martial law prevents social unrest, the military works on a new constitution to prepare the country for elections in 2016.

Country Report

Country Report South Korea

South Korea’s economic momentum has been improving, as on the back of higher consumption and government spending the economy grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2014.

Country Report

Country Report Philippines

The Philippine government has recently managed to get a budget approved that will further increase investment in infrastructure and public service delivery. Growth prospects remain relatively good.

Country Report

Country report Indonesia

The reform process in Indonesia is not expected to speed up markedly under the new government, but growth is expected to accelerate somewhat. Indonesia remains vulnerable to deteriorating financial markets sentiment.

Country Report

Country Report China

Housing market weakness has lowered China’s GDP growth, but China has so far avoided a hard landing. One year after the Third Plenum, really big economic reform steps still have to be made.