RaboResearch - Economic Research

Country Report

Country Report Japan

Recent policy initiatives of the new Prime Minster suggest that Japan’s economic activity will be picking up in the near-term. But the medium-term prospects are less rosy. Achieving debt sustainability requires credible fiscal consolidation plans.

Country Report

Country Report Estonia

Estonia’s economic growth will moderate this year. As a result, inflationary pressures will remain subdued. Estonia’s contribution to the ESM implies a significant liability. Furthermore, the country’s external position is fragile.

Country Report

Country Report Russia

Economic growth in Russia is falling to a lower longer-term trend growth of 3-4%. While domestic political stability has been restored, underlying tensions remain. Tensions with the EU have recently risen but are unlikely to escalate.

Country Report

Country Report United Arab Emirates

The economy of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates is estimated to grow between 3-4% in 2013. Although the UAE has hardly been touched by the political turmoil in the Arab world, youth unemployment is rising and is a source of potential unrest.

Country Report

Country Report Czech Republic

Reflecting close business cycle synchronicity with the euro area and fiscal consolidation at home, the Czech economy contracted by 1.2% last year. Yet, thanks to ongoing fiscal prudence, the deterioration of public finances could be contained.

Country Report

Country Report Slovenia

Slovenia has been singled out as a potential candidate for an EU/IMF bailout. Recent bond emissions should cover this year’s financing needs, but larger-than-expected bank recapitalization costs could still make external assistance necessary.

Country Report

Country Report Italy

In 2012, Italy’s GDP contracted amid harsh fiscal austerity measures and ongoing European debt crisis. The weak growth outlook in both the short and the long-term requires firm action by the government.

Country Report

Country Report Brunei

Brunei is dependent on the hydrocarbon sector, but it gives the country a comfortable external position and allows the government to be generous to the population. As a result, there is little dissatisfaction with the slow democratization process.

Country Report

Country Report Taiwan

Economic growth in Taiwan has been slowing as a result of weak external demand. As inflation is running near the central bank’s inflation target, interest rates have been kept steady. GDP growth is expected to recover somewhat in the coming years.

Country Report

Country Report Serbia

Serbia’s economic and fiscal situation remains worrisome, as the country’s economy fell back into recession last year and a pre-election spending binge led to a marked deterioration of its public finances.

Country Report

Country Report Finland

The recovery of the Finnish economy slowed in 2012 and the growth outlook for 2013 is weak. The export dependent economy is struggling with weak external demand, but also with structural issues concerning its main export sectors.

Country Report

Country Report Croatia

Croatia will join the European Union on July 1st, 2013, but its accession is unlikely to bring about short-term relief from its economic problems. Its economy is expected to remain in recession this year, as domestic and external demand stay weak.

Country Report

Country Report Spain

Given the weak economic outlook and high unemployment, it will remain a tough challenge for the government to push through its austerity and reform agenda. Regarding structural reforms that improve long term potential growth, Spain remains on track.